Search Results
Speech
Remarks for the Panel Discussion “Why Did We Miscast Inflation?”
Inflation remains too high, and recent data – including several strong labor market indicators, as well as faster than expected retail sales and producer price inflation – all reinforce my view that we have more work to do, to bring inflation down to the 2 percent target. While optimistic there is a path to restoring price stability without a significant downturn, I am also well aware of the many risks and uncertainties, including the risk of a self-fulfilling loss of business and consumer confidence.
Journal Article
Price Stability Built to Last
The economy is healthy and price stability is within sight. But progress is not victory, and considerable uncertainty and risks remain. To finish the job will take fortitude and patience, along with the agility to respond as the economy evolves. The following is adapted from the keynote address by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the 40th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, DC, on February 16.
Potential Impacts of the War in Ukraine on the Fourth District
This District Data Brief examines the trade connections between Ukraine and Russia and the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. It appears that supplies to the District will be substantially reduced for several items that Ukraine and Russia export, such as primary metals and fertilizer. We should expect prices to rise for these goods, as they have already for petroleum. However, there are generally alternate global suppliers for many of the goods sold by Ukraine and Russia, so Fourth District ...
Speech
Reading the Recovery
Remarks at Council on Foreign Relations (delivered via videoconference).
Speech
Perspectives on the Economy: Remarks at the Annual Convention of the Maine Bankers Association
Susan Collins shared her views about the economic outlook and monetary policy. Then she provided a few perspectives on banking in New England and in particular Maine – highlighting the importance of banks of all sizes to a vibrant, inclusive economy. She ended with a few points about the Fed’s work across the region, and the shared opportunities to collaborate in the public interest.
Working Paper
Supply or Demand? Policy Makers' Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis
Policy makers need to separate between temporary demand-driven shocks and permanent shocks in order to design optimal aggregate demand policies. In this paper we study the case of a central bank that ignores the presence of hysteresis when identifying shocks. By assuming that all low frequency output fluctuations are driven by permanent technology shocks, monetary policy is not aggressive enough in response to demand shocks. In addition, we show that errors in assessing the state of the economy can be self-perpetuating if seen through the lens of the mistaken views of the policymaker. We show ...
Working Paper
Second Home Buyers and the Housing Boom and Bust
Record-high second home buying (homeowners acquiring nonprimary residences) was a central feature of the 2000s boom, but the macroeconomic effects remain an open question partly because reliable geographic data is currently unavailable. This paper constructs local data on second home buying by merging credit bureau data with mortgage servicing records. The identification strategy exploits the fact that the vacation share of housing from the 2000 Census is predictive of second home origination shares during the boom years, while also uncorrelated with other boom-bust drivers including proxies ...
Speech
Parsing the Pandemic’s Effects on Labor Markets
Opening Remarks at the Bank’s 66th Economic Conference, “Labor Markets During and After the Pandemic”. Potentially long-lasting effects of the pandemic on the labor market, such as increased remote work and accelerated automation of service-sector jobs, are likely to have differential effects across the workforce. Understanding these differences is important for achieving the Fed’s mission of a vibrant, inclusive economy in the wake of COVID-19.
Speech
Perspectives on the Economy and Policymaking
Susan Collins reviews a wide range of information to assess the evolving economy. She looks for patterns and trends showing sustained reductions in inflation, and progress on the underlying goal of bringing demand and supply back into better balance. She notes that price stability is essential for a well-functioning economy and an important precondition for maximum employment that is sustainable over time.