Search Results
Working Paper
Monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the 20th century
This paper examines the association between monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany during the 20th century. Booms tended to arise when output growth was rapid and inflation was low, and end within a few months of an increase in inflation and monetary policy tightening. Latent variable VAR analysis of post-war data finds that inflation has had a particularly strong impact on market conditions, with disinflation shocks moving the market toward a boom and positive inflation shocks moving the market toward a bust. We conclude that ...
Report
Prestigious stock exchanges: a network analysis of international financial centers
In this paper, we use methods from social network analysis to assess the relative importance of financial centers around the world. Using data from virtually the entire universe of global equity activity, we present two sets of complete rankings for up to forty-five separate locations for the 1990-2006 period. The first phase of our analysis evaluates international stock exchanges based on their ability to attract global initial public offerings (IPOs). The second phase compares the capacity of these exchanges to provide an efficient trading platform for cross-listed companies. U.S. exchanges ...
Working Paper
When is inter-transaction time informative?
We investigate the information content of inter-transaction time and find that it varies both across stocks and over time. On average, inter-transaction time is found to be informative whenever stocks are sufficiently traded. The magnitude of the information content is found to be larger for less liquid, but still fairly actively traded stocks. In general, trades arriving quickly move prices more than trades arriving more slowly. Further, the information content of inter-transaction time is negatively correlated with proxies for the amount of private information in the trading of a particular ...
Working Paper
Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK
We use multivariate regime switching vector autoregressive models to characterize the time-varying linkages among short-term interest rates (monetary policy) and stock returns in the Irish, the US and UK markets. We find that two regimes, characterized as bear and bull states, are required to characterize the dynamics of returns and short-term rates. This implies that we cannot reject the hypothesis that the regimes driving the markets in the small open economy are largely synchronous with those typical of the major markets. We compute time-varying Sharpe ratios and recursive mean-variance ...
Journal Article
Solid performance marked by district publicly traded companies
Working Paper
Market timing with aggregate and idiosyncratic stock volatilities
Guo and Savickas [2005] show that aggregate stock market volatility and average idiosyncratic stock volatility jointly forecast stock returns. In this paper, we quantify the economic significance of their results from the perspective of a portfolio manager. That is, we evaluate the performance, e.g., the Sharpe ratio and Jensen's alpha, of a mean-variance manager who tries to time the market based on those two variables. We find that, over the period 1968-2004, the associated market-timing strategy outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy, and the difference is statistically and economically ...
Journal Article
How does the stock market affect the economy?
Journal Article
Are markets really efficient?
Working Paper
What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model
We use multivariate regime switching vector autoregressive models to characterize the time-varying linkages among the Irish stock market, one of the top world performers of the 1990s, and the US and UK stock markets. We find that two regimes, characterized as bear and bull states, are required to characterize the dynamics of excess equity returns both at the univariate and multivariate level. This implies that the regimes driving the small open economy stock market are largely synchronous with those typical of the major markets. However, despite the existence of a persistent bull state in ...
Working Paper
Japanese management views on overseas exchange listings: survey results
Previous empirical studies cast a doubt on a positive effect of overseas listings on stockholders' wealth. We should investigate reasons for the steady growth of overseas listings other than the stockholders' wealth maximization. However, we have little information about management views on overseas listings except regarding U.S. firms. In this paper, we used a mail questionnaire to obtain information on overseas listing decisions of Japanese companies. As our survey shows, Japanese managers regard the disclosure and financial reporting requirements as the primary obstacles to overseas ...