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Journal Article
Are markets really efficient?
Working Paper
Understanding stock return predictability
Over the period 1927:Q1 to 2005:Q4, the average CAPM-based idiosyncratic variance (IV) and stock market variance jointly forecast stock market returns. This result holds up quite well in a number of robustness checks, and we show that the predictive power of the average IV might come from its close relation with systematic risk omitted from CAPM. First, high lagged returns on high IV stocks predict low future returns on the market as a whole. Second, returns on a hedging portfolio that is long in stocks with low IV and short in stocks with high IV perform as well as the value premium in ...
Working Paper
The evolution of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange: 1964-2002
This paper analyzes the evolution of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX), America's oldest stock exchange, from 1964 through 2002. The paper seeks to explain how the PHLX managed to attract a sufficient volume of trading orders to support its members and cover its operating costs during this period, and how it adapted to survive in an era with profound changes in the structure of securities markets.
Newsletter
Controlling risk in a lightning-speed trading environment
A handful of high-frequency trading firms accounted for an estimated 70 percent of overall trading volume on U.S. equities markets in 2009. One firm with such a computerized system traded over 2 billion shares in a single day in October 2008, amounting to over 10 percent of U.S. equities trading volume for the day. What are the advantages and disadvantages of this technology-dependent trading environment, and how are its risks controlled?
Working Paper
Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in G7 countries
The paper analyzes average idiosyncratic volatility in G7 countries. We find that idiosyncratic volatility is highly correlated across countries and there is a significant Granger causality from the U.S. to the other countries and vice versa. Consistent with U.S. data, when combined with stock market volatility, idiosyncratic volatility has significant predictive power for stock market returns and the value premium in many other G7 countries. Moreover, in U.S. data, idiosyncratic volatility has explanatory power for stock returns very similar to that of value premium volatility in both ...
Journal Article
The consolidation of European stock exchanges
With the growing appeal of cross-border trading in Europe, efforts are under way to establish consolidated exchanges that offer trading in stocks from many European countries. An analysis of these evolving pan-European exchanges suggests that consolidation could reduce the costs and complications of cross-border trading through such enhancements as a standardization of trading platforms. Yet regulatory, legal, and economic barriers to the creation of these exchanges may delay any benefits of consolidation.
Working Paper
Transmission of information across international equity markets
This paper provides evidence of transmission of information from the U.S. and Japan to Korean and Thai equity markets during the period from 1995 through 2000. Information is defined as important macroeconomic announcements in the U.S., Japan, Korea, and Thailand. Using high-frequency intraday data, I focus the study on return volatility and trading volume because the implications of new information are much clearer than for returns. I find a large and significant association between emerging-economy equity volatility and trading volume and developed-economy macroeconomic announcements at ...
Conference Paper
Automated trade execution systems
Working Paper
The immediacy implications of exchange organization
The paper introduces a connection between the needs of exchanges to respond to the immediacy needs of their clientele and the need to manage the credit risks faced by exchange members. Queueing theory is used to represent the opportunity loss suffered by brokers engaging in multiple activities: order-flow origination and its intermediation. The role of market-making locals is depicted as enabling specialization. Brokers focus on originating order flow and locals on fulfilling intermediation needs. The capacity to specialize is constrained by the availability of creditworthy members acting as ...
Journal Article
Solid performance marked by district publicly traded companies