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Working Paper
Collaboration in Bipartite Networks, with an Application to Coauthorship Networks
Hsieh, Chih-Sheng; König, Michael D.; Zimmermann, Christian; Liu, Xiaodong (2020-08-17)
This paper studies the impact of collaboration on research output. First, we build a micro founded model for scientific knowledge production, where collaboration between researchers is represented by a bipartite network. The equilibrium of the game incorporates both the complementarity effect between collaborating researchers and the substitutability effect between concurrent projects of the same researcher. Next, we develop a Bayesian MCMC procedure to estimate the structural parameters, taking into account the endogenous matching of researchers and projects. Finally, we illustrate the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-030

Working Paper
Differential Treatment in the Bond Market: Sovereign Risk and Mutual Fund Portfolios
Converse, Nathan L.; Mallucci, Enrico (2019-10-18)
How does sovereign risk affect investors' behavior? We answer this question using a novel database that combines sovereign default probabilities for 27 developed and emerging markets with monthly data on the portfolios of individual bond mutual funds. We first show that changes in yields do not fully compensate investors for additional sovereign risk, so that bond funds reduce their exposure to a country's assets when its sovereign default risk increases. However, the magnitude of the response varies widely across countries. Fund managers aggressively reduce their exposure to high-debt ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1261

Working Paper
Terror Externalities and Trade: An Empirical Analysis
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Pham, Cong S.; Doucouliagos, Hristos (2019-05-29)
We report robust evidence of adverse cross-border externalities from terrorism on trade for over 160 countries from 1976 to 2014. Terrorism in one country spills over to reduce trade in neighboring nations. These externalities arise from higher trade costs due to trade delays and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Working Papers , Paper 2019-17

Working Paper
Effects of Neighboring Nation Terrorism on Imports
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Pham, Cong S.; Doucouliagos, Hristos (2020-02-03)
We present a monopolistic competition model to analyze the effects of own nation and neighboring nation terrorism on a nation’s imports. The theoretical analysis shows that own nation terrorism may leave relative price of imports unaffected, but neighboring nation terrorism must raise the relative price, reducing imports. We find that a 10% increase in terrorist attacks in a neighboring nation reduces a country’s imports from the rest of the world by approximately $320 million USD, on average. Mediation analysis shows that trading delays is a potential channel of transmission of trade ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-017

Report
U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Shocks and Vulnerabilities Matter
Akinci, Ozge; Ahmed, Shaghil; Queraltó, Albert (2021-06-01)
We use a macroeconomic model to explore how policy drivers and country vulnerabilities matter for the transmission of U.S. monetary policy shifts to emerging markets. Our model features imperfections in domestic and international financial markets and imperfectly anchored inflation expectations. We show that higher U.S. interest rates arising from stronger U.S. demand generate modestly positive spillovers to activity in emerging markets with stronger fundamentals, but can be adverse for vulnerable countries. In contrast, U.S. monetary tightenings driven by a more-hawkish policy stance cause a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 972

Working Paper
Unconventional Monetary Policy, (A)Synchronicity and the Yield Curve
Dilts Stedman, Karlye (2019-10-31)
This paper examines international spillovers from unconventional monetary policy between the United States, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Japan, and assesses the influence of asynchronous policy normalization on the slope of the yield curve. Using high frequency futures data to identify monetary policy surprises and controlling for contemporaneous news, I find that spillovers increase during periods of unconventional monetary policy and strengthen during asynchronous policy normalization. Local projections suggest persistent spillovers from the Federal Reserve, whereas other ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-9

Working Paper
A Market Interpretation of Treatment Effects
Minton, Robert; Mulligan, Casey B. (2024-12-20)
Markets, likened to an invisible hand, often appear to contradict econometric assumptions that rule out spillovers of one person’s treatment on another’s outcomes. This paper provides a simple statistical framework highlighting that controls are indirectly affected by the treatment through the market. Further, the effect of the treatment on the treated reveals only part of the consequence for the treated of treating the entire market. When combined with economic theory, our framework leads to a new application of Marshall’s Laws of Derived Demand that relates econometric estimates of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-096

Working Paper
Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation
Georgiadis, Georgios; Schumann, Ben (2019-09-04)
Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers such as business cycle co-movement, optimal monetary policy, optimum currency areas and international monetary policy coordination. Unfortunately, the literature has not reached a consensus on which pricing paradigm best describes the data. Against this background, we test for the empirical relevance of dominant-currency pricing (DCP). Specifically, we first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 368

Working Paper
Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing
Goernemann, Nils; Dias, Daniel A.; Hoek, Jasper; Jain, Anil K.; Ahmed, Shaghil; Correa, Ricardo; Wong, Anna; Liu, Edith X. (2019-10-18)
China?s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1260

Speech
Is there room for more monetary cooperation?: panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France
Potter, Simon M. (2016-09-30)
Panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France.
Speech , Paper 218

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