Search Results
Working Paper
Collaboration in Bipartite Networks, with an Application to Coauthorship Networks
This paper studies the impact of collaboration on research output. First, we build a micro founded model for scientific knowledge production, where collaboration between researchers is represented by a bipartite network. The equilibrium of the game incorporates both the complementarity effect between collaborating researchers and the substitutability effect between concurrent projects of the same researcher. Next, we develop a Bayesian MCMC procedure to estimate the structural parameters, taking into account the endogenous matching of researchers and projects. Finally, we illustrate the ...
Report
U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Shocks and Vulnerabilities Matter
We use a macroeconomic model to explore how policy drivers and country vulnerabilities matter for the transmission of U.S. monetary policy shifts to emerging markets. Our model features imperfections in domestic and international financial markets and imperfectly anchored inflation expectations. We show that higher U.S. interest rates arising from stronger U.S. demand generate modestly positive spillovers to activity in emerging markets with stronger fundamentals, but can be adverse for vulnerable countries. In contrast, U.S. monetary tightenings driven by a more-hawkish policy stance cause a ...
Working Paper
Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation
Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers such as business cycle co-movement, optimal monetary policy, optimum currency areas and international monetary policy coordination. Unfortunately, the literature has not reached a consensus on which pricing paradigm best describes the data. Against this background, we test for the empirical relevance of dominant-currency pricing (DCP). Specifically, we first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, ...
Speech
Is there room for more monetary cooperation?: panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France
Panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France.
Working Paper
The Phillips Curve's and Relative Phillips Curve's Slopes: Why So Different?
I estimate the effect of labor market tightness on wage inflation from 2004-2019 using aggregate data and a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. The Phillips curve slope, i.e., the effect of a unit increase in the vacancy-unemployment ratio on inflation, is about 3.4 percentage points. Then, I estimate the model using the corresponding panel-level data with a time-fixed-effect regression: The resulting regional (i.e., relative) Phillips curve slope is about 0.7. This large difference between the two slopes is robust to controlling for various measures of inflation expectations and for supply ...
Working Paper
Interregional Migration and Housing Vacancy: Theory and Empirics
We examine homeowner vacancy rate interdependencies over time and space through the channel of migration. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating interregional spillovers due to some households’ desires to migrate between regions and by allowing for regime-switching behavior. Our empirical analysis of vacancy rates for the entire U.S. and for Census regions provides visual evidence for the possibility of regime-switching behavior. We explicitly test our model by estimating basic Vector Autoregression (VAR) and ...
Discussion Paper
How Large are Default Spillovers in the U.S. Financial System?
When a financial firm defaults on its counterparties, the counterparties may in turn become unable to pay their own creditors, and so on. This domino effect can quickly propagate through the financial system, creating undesirable spillovers and unnecessary defaults. In this post, the authors use the framework discussed in the first post of this two-part series to answer the question: How vulnerable is the U.S. financial system to default spillovers?
Working Paper
Local Fiscal Multipliers, Negative Spillovers and the Macroeconomy
This paper analyzes the impact of within-state military spending and national military spending on a state's employment. I estimate that, while within-state spending increases that state's employment (i.e., a positive local effect), an increase in national military spending ceteris paribus decreases employment in the state (i.e., a negative spillover effect). The combined local and spillover effects imply an aggregate employment effect that is close to zero. The estimates are consistent with a resource reallocation explanation: Persons take jobs in or move to a state with increased military ...
Report
Information Spillovers Within Couples: Evidence from a Sequential Survey of Spouses
Little is known about the extent and drivers of information flow within couples and whether spouses hold aligned expectations about the same outcomes. To provide new evidence, we conduct an online survey of 2,200 middle-aged married couples in the U.S. Our focus is on expectations about Social Security benefits. We first document misalignment in expectations: the correlation between partners’ beliefs about a given spouse’s Social Security benefits is 0.70, well below full agreement. We also show that this imperfect alignment is systematically associated with couple-specific ...
Working Paper
Superstar Economists: Coauthorship networks and research output
We study the impact of research collaborations in coauthorship networks on research output and how optimal funding can maximize it. Through the links in the collaboration network, researchers create spillovers not only to their direct coauthors but also to researchers indirectly linked to them. We characterize the equilibrium when agents collaborate in multiple and possibly overlapping projects. We bring our model to the data by analyzing the coauthorship network of economists registered in the RePEc Author Service. We rank the authors and research institutions according to their contribution ...