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Working Paper
Improving Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Sanchez, Juan M.; Sapriza, Horacio; Yurdagul, Emircan (2022-04-06)
The wave of sovereign defaults in the early 1980s and the string of debt crises in subsequent decades have fostered proposals involving policy interventions in sovereign debt restructurings. The global ﬁnancial crisis and the recent global pandemic have further reignited this discussion among academics and policymakers. A key question about these policy proposals for debt restructurings that has proved hard to handle is how they inﬂuence the behavior of creditors and debtors. We address this challenge by evaluating policy proposals in a quantitative sovereign default model that ...
Working Paper , Paper 22-06

Working Paper
The (Unintended?) Consequences of the Largest Liquidity Injection Ever
Crosignani, Matteo; Fonseca, Luis; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2017-01)
We study the design of lender of last resort interventions and show that the provision of long-term liquidity incentivizes purchases of high-yield short-term securities by banks. Using a unique security-level data set, we find that the European Central Bank?s three-year Long-Term Refinancing Operation incentivized Portuguese banks to purchase short-term domestic government bonds that could be pledged to obtain central bank liquidity. This "collateral trade" effect is large, as banks purchased short-term bonds equivalent to 8.4% of amount outstanding. The resumption of public debt issuance ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-011

Report
A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle
Bai, Yan; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Lopez, Pierlauro; Perri, Fabrizio (2025-03-21)
Emerging markets face large and persistent fluctuations in sovereign spreads. To what extent are these fluctuations driven by local shocks versus financial conditions in advanced economies? To answer this question, we develop a neoclassical business cycle model of a world economy with an advanced country, the North, and many emerging market economies, the South. Northern households invest in domestic stocks, domestic defaultable bonds, and international sovereign debt. Over the 2008-2016 period, the global cycle phase, the North accounts for 68% of Southern spreads’ fluctuations. Over the ...
Staff Report , Paper 666

Working Paper
Deconstructing Delays in Sovereign Debt Restructuring
Benjamin, David; Wright, Mark L. J. (2018-07-16)
Negotiations to restructure sovereign debt are time consuming, taking almost a decade on average to resolve. In this paper, we analyze a class of widely used complete information models of delays in sovereign debt restructuring and show that, despite superficial similarities, there are major differences across models in the driving force for equilibrium delay, the circumstances in which delay occurs, and the efficiency of the debt restructuring process. We focus on three key assumptions. First, if delay has a permanent effect on economic activity in the defaulting country, equilibrium delay ...
Working Papers , Paper 753

Working Paper
A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle
Bai, Yan; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Lopez, Pierlauro; Perri, Fabrizio (2025-02-25)
Emerging markets face large and persistent fluctuations in sovereign spreads. To what extent are these fluctuations driven by local shocks versus financial conditions in advanced economies? To answer this question, we develop a neoclassical business cycle model of a world economy with an advanced country, the North, and many emerging market economies, the South. Northern households invest in domestic stocks, domestic defaultable bonds, and international sovereign debt. Over the 2008-2016 period, the global cycle phase, the North accounts for 68% of Southern spreads' fluctuations. Over the ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-06

Working Paper
Sovereign Debt and Credit Default Swaps
Chaumont, Gaston; Gordon, Grey; Sultanum, Bruno; Tobin, Elliot (2023-03-14)
ow do credit default swaps (CDS) affect sovereign debt markets? The answer depends crucially on trading frictions, risk-sharing, arbitrage violations, and spillovers from secondary to primary markets. We propose a sovereign default model where investors trade bonds and CDS over the counter via directed search. CDS affect bond prices through several channels. First, CDS act as a synthetic bond. Second, CDS reduce bond-investing risks, allowing exposure to be unwound. Third, CDS availability increases trading profitability, which induces entry and reduces trading costs. Last, these direct ...
Working Paper , Paper 23-05

Are Developing Countries Facing a Possible Debt Crisis?
Wright, Mark L. J.; Smaldone, Amy (2023-09-05)
An analysis looks at whether developing countries are facing pressures similar to those in the 1980s, when higher interest rates helped trigger a wave of defaults in sovereign debt.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Research Spotlight: Adapting Sovereign Debt to Climate Change
Ramachandran, David (2023-04)
As stronger hurricanes become more common due to climate change, understanding what factors drive recovery is increasingly important. How quickly a country recovers is influenced by its ability to attract foreign capital — making recovery challenging for emerging economies, as investors are more reluctant to invest in countries that are more likely to default on loans. The challenge for these countries to secure capital suggests an area for financial instruments to be adapted to better suit their needs. To gain a clearer understanding of the interplay between climate-related disasters and ...
Econ Focus , Volume 23 , Issue 2Q , Pages 8

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