Search Results

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Keywords:shocks 

Speech
The Financial Stability Outlook

Remarks at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York City.
Speech

Working Paper
Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk

What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jord, 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves in response to economic shocks to the level of technology, monetary policy, and financial conditions. Furthermore, by studying various percentiles jointly, we study how the overall economic outlook?as characterized by the entire forecast distribution of GDP growth?shifts in response to shocks. We find that ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-10

Discussion Paper
Financial Vulnerability and Macroeconomic Fragility

What is the effect of a hike in interest rates on the economy? Building on recent research, we argue in this post that the answer to this question very much depends on how vulnerable the financial system is. We measure financial vulnerability using a novel concept—the financial stability interest rate r** (or “r-double-star”)—and show that, empirically, the economy is more sensitive to shocks when the gap between r** and current real rates is small or negative.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230522

Discussion Paper
Do Unexpected Inflationary Shocks Raise Workers’ Wages?

The past year’s steady decline in nominal wage growth now appears in danger of stalling. Given ongoing uncertainty in Ukraine and the Middle East, this seems an opportune moment to revisit the conventional wisdom about the relationship between inflation and wages: if an unexpected increase in energy costs drives up the cost of living, will workers demand higher wages, reversing the recent moderation in wage growth? In new work with Justin Bloesch and Seung Joo Lee examining those concerns, our analysis shows that the pass-through of such inflationary shocks to wages is weak.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240515

Report
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds

This paper analyzes a new stylized fact: According to financial market prices, the correlation between uncertainty shocks, as measured by changes in the VIX, and changes in break-even inflation rates has declined and turned negative over the past quarter century. It rationalizes this uncertainty-inflation correlation within a standard New Keynesian model with a lower bound on interest rates combined with a decline in the natural rate of interest. With a lower natural rate, the likelihood of the lower bound binding increased and the effects of uncertainty on the economy became more pronounced. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1011

Discussion Paper
Financial Stability and Interest Rates

In a recent research paper we argue that interest rates have very different consequences for current versus future financial stability. In the short run, lower real rates mean higher asset prices and hence higher net worth for financial institutions. In the long run, lower real rates lead intermediaries to shift their portfolios toward risky assets, making them more vulnerable over time. In this post, we use a model to highlight the challenging trade-offs faced by policymakers in setting interest rates.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230523

Working Paper
Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework

Diagnostic expectations constitute a realistic behavioral model of inference. This paper shows that this approach to expectation formation can be productively integrated into the New Keynesian framework. Diagnostic expectations generate endogenous extrapolation in general equilibrium. We show that diagnostic expectations generate extra amplification in the presence of nominal frictions; a fall in aggregate supply generates a Keynesian recession; fiscal policy is more effective at stimulating the economy. We perform Bayesian estimation of a rich medium-scale model that incorporates consensus ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-19

Speech
Liquidity Shocks: Lessons Learned from the Global Financial Crisis and the Pandemic

Remarks at the 2021 Financial Crisis Forum, Panel on Lessons for Emergency Lending (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Report
Monetary Policy across Inflation Regimes

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year inflation exceeds 5.5 percent. Below this threshold, changes in monetary policy have a short-lived effect on prices, but no effect on the unemployment rate, giving a potential explanation for the recent “soft landing” in the United States. Above this threshold, the effects of monetary policy surprises ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1083

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

Discussion Paper 3 items

Report 2 items

Speech 2 items

Working Paper 2 items

FILTER BY Jel Classification

E52 3 items

G2 2 items

C11 1 items

C12 1 items

C21 1 items

C22 1 items

show more (13)

FILTER BY Keywords

PREVIOUS / NEXT