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Working Paper
The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market
We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market in order to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a dramatic decrease in shale production costs and explore how the resultant increase in shale production affects the level and volatility of oil prices over our sample. We find that oil prices in 2018 would have been roughly 36% higher had the shale revolution not occurred and that the shale revolution implies a reduction in current oil price volatility around 25% and a decline in long-run volatility of over 50%.
Working Paper
Asset Ownership, Windfalls, and Income: Evidence from Oil and Gas Royalties
How does local versus absentee ownership of natural resources?and their associated income?shape the relationship between extraction and local income? Theory and empirics on natural resources and the broader economy have focused heavily on labor markets, largely ignoring the economic implications of payments to resource owners. We study how local ownership of oil and gas rights shapes the local income effects of extraction. For the average U.S. county that experienced an increase in oil and gas production from 2000 to 2013, increased royalty income and its associated economic stimulus ...