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Keywords:rules OR Rules 

Speech
Remarks at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association’s Compliance and Legal Society Monthly Luncheon, New York City.

Remarks at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association?s Compliance and Legal Society Monthly Luncheon, New York City.
Speech , Paper 245

Report
Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment

This paper studies lockdown policy in a dynamic economy without government commitment. Lockdown imposes a cap on labor supply, which improves health prospects at the cost of economic output and consumption. A government would like to commit to the extent of future lockdowns in order to guarantee an economic outlook that supports efficient levels of investment into intermediate inputs. However, such a commitment is not credible, since investments are sunk at the time when the government chooses a lockdown. As a result, lockdown under lack of commitment deviates from the optimal policy. Rules ...
Staff Report , Paper 627

Speech
Compliance – some thoughts about reaching the next level

Remarks at the Fordham Journal of Corporate Counsel & Financial Law Symposium, Fordham Law School, New York City.
Speech , Paper 156

Working Paper
Drifting Inflation Targets and Monetary Stagflation

This paper revisits the phenomenon of stagflation. Using a standard New Keynesian dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model, we show that stagflation from monetary policy alone is a very common occurrence when the economy is subject to both deviations from the policy rule and a drifting inflation target. Once the inflation target is fixed, the incidence of stagflation in the baseline model is essentially eliminated. In contrast with several other recent papers that have focused on the connection between monetary policy and stagflation, we show that while high uncertainty about monetary ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1426

Working Paper
Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

Activity shortfalls are more costly than strong activity. I consider optimal monetary policy under discretion with an asymmetric (activity shortfalls) loss function. The model satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. The asymmetric loss function and resulting optimal monetary policy exacerbates shortfalls in activity. The additional frequency of activity shortfalls arises from the adjustment of expectations implied by the natural rate hypothesis. The shortfalls asymmetry leads to an inflationary bias, similar to results in the time-consistency literature. Mandating a central bank objective with ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-032

Journal Article
Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules

Monetary policymakers often use simple monetary policy rules, like the Taylor rule, as an input into their decision-making. However, there are many different simple rules, and there is no agreement on a single ?best? rule. We look at the federal funds rates coming from seven simple rules and three economic forecasts to investigate the range of results that can be produced. While there are some commonalities, we document that the differences in the federal funds rates suggested by the rules can be quite pronounced.
Economic Commentary , Issue July

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