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Estimates of State and Local Government Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation
This data brief presents estimates of the impacts of the COVID-19 mitigation shutdowns on US state and local income and sales tax revenue. The author estimates that these revenues will decline by $54 billion in fiscal year 2020 (FY20). Depending on the speed of the recovery over the next fiscal year, another $25 billion to $137 billion of revenue may be lost. If states split their rainy day funds between FY20 and fiscal year 2021 (FY21) to offset these revenue declines, the shortfalls would be reduced to $21 billion in FY20 and $4 billion to $78 billion in FY21.
Working Paper
Predicting College Closures and Financial Distress
In this paper, we assemble the most comprehensive dataset to date on the characteristics of colleges and universities, including dates of operation, institutional setting, student body, staff, and finance data from 2002 to 2023. We provide an extensive description of what is known and unknown about closed colleges compared with institutions that did not close. Using this data, we first develop a series of predictive models of financial distress, utilizing factors like operational revenue/expense patterns, sources of revenue, metrics of liquidity and leverage, enrollment/staff patterns, and ...
Discussion Paper
The Lingering Fiscal Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Higher Education
The unprecedented challenges from COVID-19 present many institutions of higher education with liquidity, and even solvency, concerns. In this report, we provide guidance to institutions and policymakers about the short- and medium-term revenue losses that are likely to materialize as a result of the ongoing pandemic and associated disruptions to revenue and expenses. Using historical data on states’ responses to previous economic downturns and contemporaneous measures of the severity of the current economic predicament, we project state and local appropriation reductions that public ...