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Journal Article
Asset Returns and Labor Force Participation During COVID-19
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2022-01-06)
Why did so many people retire during the pandemic?
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Putting off retirement: the rise of the 401(k)
Owyang, Michael T.; Chiodo, Abbigail J. (2002-03)
National Economic Trends , Issue Mar

Discussion Paper
What Has Driven the Labor Force Participation Gap since February 2020?
Amiti, Mary; Heise, Sebastian; Topa, Giorgio; Wu, Julia (2023-03-30)
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) currently stands at 62.5 percent, 0.8 percentage point below its level in February 2020. This “participation gap” translates into 2.1 million workers out of the labor force. In this post, we evaluate three potential drivers of the gap: First, population aging from the baby boomers reaching retirement age puts downward pressure on participation. Second, the share of individuals of retirement age that are actually retired has risen since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, long COVID and disability more generally may induce more people ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230330

Journal Article
The baby boomers' mega-inheritance-myth or reality?
Kotlikoff, Laurence J.; Gokhale, Jagadeesh (2000-10)
Retirees are one of the wealthiest segments of the U.S. population, and today's retirees have more wealth than any previous generation. Some have conjectured that bequests out of this wealth will significantly boost the resources of the baby boomers-the next generation of retirees-bridging the gap between their retirement needs and resources. This Economic Commentary argues against such a view and explains why boomers have no alternative but to save for their own retirement.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Report
An Aggregate Model for Policy Analysis with Demographic Change
Prescott, Edward C.; McGrattan, Ellen R. (2016-08-11)
Many countries are facing challenging fiscal financing issues as their populations age and the number of workers per retiree falls. Policymakers need transparent and robust analyses of alternative policies to deal with demographic changes. In this paper, we propose a simple framework that can easily be matched to aggregate data from the national accounts. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework by comparing quantitative results for our aggregate model with those of a related model that includes within-age-cohort heterogeneity through productivity differences. When we assess proposals ...
Staff Report , Paper 534

Journal Article
Why Are Workers Staying Out of the U.S. Labor Force?
Gregory, Victoria; Steinberg, Joel (2022-02-02)
Shifts in retirement and people taking care of family or the home appear to be behind the drop in labor market participation.
The Regional Economist

Report
Sustainable social security: four options
Kitao, Sagiri (2011)
This paper presents four policy options to make Social Security sustainable under the coming demographic shift: 1) increase payroll taxes by 6 percentage points, 2) reduce the replacement rates of the benefit formula by one-third, 3) raise the normal retirement age from sixty-six to seventy-three, or 4) means-test the benefits and reduce them one-to-one with income. While all four policies achieve the same goal, their economic outcomes differ significantly. Options 2 and 3 encourage own savings, and capital stock is more than 10 percent higher than in the other two options. The payroll tax ...
Staff Reports , Paper 505

Working Paper
Wealth effects and the consumption of leisure: retirement decisions during the stock market boom of the 1900s
Coronado, Julia Lynn; Perozek, Maria G. (2003)
It is well accepted that households increase consumption of goods and services in response to an unexpected increase in wealth. Consensus estimates of this wealth effect are in the range of 3 to 5 cents of additional consumption spending in the long run for each additional dollar of wealth. Economic theory also suggests that consumption of leisure, like consumption of goods and services, should increase with positive shocks to wealth. In this paper, we ask whether the run-up in equity prices during the 1990s led older workers to retire earlier than they had previously planned. We identify the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2003-20

Working Paper
Portfolio choice in tax-deferred and Roth-type savings accounts
Johnson, Richard (2003)
This paper uses numerical methods to compare optimal portfolios in tax-deferred and Roth-type savings accounts. Income and payroll taxes affect optimal portfolios in tax-deferred and Roth-type plans differently. For workers with assets in only one type of plan, the optimal equity share in a tax-deferred account could be higher or lower than in a Roth, depending on initial wealth. The differences in optimal portfolios between plans are large at short investment horizons but smaller at longer horizons. This paper also studies the 'asset location' decision of workers with assets in plans of both ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 03-08

Journal Article
Fewer older men in the U.S. work force: technological, behavioral, and legislative contributions to the decline
Moen, Jon R. (1990-11)
Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 16-31

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