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Working Paper
Imperfect Substitutability in Real Estate Markets and the Effect of Housing Demand on the Macroeconomy
Changes in housing demand can have a macroeconomic effect through the collateral channel, where the change in residential real estate prices is associated with a change in commercial real estate prices, affecting firm collateral and thus firm investment. We argue that this channel is weaker when residential and commercial real estate are poor substitutes. Using cross-state heterogeneity in the strength of zoning regulations as a proxy for heterogeneity in the substitutability of residential and commercial real estate, we first show with firm level data that the strength of local zoning ...
Journal Article
Understanding the Eighth District’s Housing Market
Interest rate increases have cooled housing markets in the Eighth District, but trends in housing demand have led to tight residential real estate markets.
Journal Article
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Residential Real Estate Market
During the spring, the COVID-19 pandemic caused the residential real estate market to decline an average 33% around the country.
Working Paper
Land Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Imperfect Substitution in Real Estate Markets
The collateral channel, whereby an increase in residential house prices leads to an increase in commercial property prices, loosening firm borrowing constraints and leading to higher firm investment, is weaker when residential and commercial real estate are imperfect substitutes. We first show in a reduced form regression with firm level data that the strength of local zoning regulations has a negative effect on the estimated increase in firm investment following an increase in local residential real estate prices. We then modify the DSGE model of the collateral channel in Liu, Wang, and Zha ...
Journal Article
Why Are Multifamily Property Prices Falling?
Multifamily property prices climbed to record levels in recent years amid low interest rates and surging housing demand. More recently, prices have retreated in the face of higher interest rates, slower rent growth, elevated operating expenses, and increased delivery of new units available for rent. However, the deterioration in these fundamentals does not fully explain recent property price declines, suggesting investors’ near-term outlooks have been pessimistic.
Journal Article
How Long Does It Take to Build Multifamily Housing?
Increasing the supply of multifamily housing is a key strategy to reduce the cost of shelter in our larger cities. However, the time required to produce these units has grown over time. We document the duration from when an apartment or condominium development or redevelopment (i.e., conversion from another use) is first announced until its completion. We break down this duration into (a) the planning and permitting phase and (b) the construction phase. We find that, on average, projects spend three to four months more in the planning stage than in construction. This project duration is ...