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Discussion Paper
How Have the Euro Area and U.S. Labor Market Recoveries Differed?
The initial phase of the pandemic saw the euro area and U.S unemployment rates behave quite differently, with the rate for the United States rising much more dramatically than the euro area rate. Two years on, the rates for both regions are back near pre-pandemic levels. A key difference, though, is that U.S. employment levels were down by 3.0 million jobs in 2021:Q4 relative to pre-pandemic levels, while the number of euro area jobs was up 600,000. A look at employment by industry shows that both regions had large shortfalls in the accommodation and food services industries, as expected. A ...
Speech
An Economic Outlook - New Jerseys Bankers Association
Philadelphia Fed?s Harker: New Jersey?s Economy Shows Significant Progress Despite Slow Recovery January 20, 2017 While New Jersey?s economy has made significant progress since the recession, the state faces ?different issues than other states? that impact the recovery of its housing and labor markets, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker said today in remarks at the New Jersey Bankers Association?s annual Economic Leadership Forum
Journal Article
Banking recovery could be vulnerable to interest rate increases
The earnings on assets?generally loans?may not respond as rapidly as the cost of funds?deposits?leading to declining profits.
Speech
Taking Stock of the Economic Recovery and the Opportunities to Bolster Financial Stability
It seems likely that the economy will grow rapidly this year. This should reduce the slack in the labor markets and eventually return inflation to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Assuming virus variants do not become especially problematic, we should see an unusually strong post-recession recovery. While the near-term public health and macroeconomic improvements are more than welcome and critically important, I also believe that policymakers across the spectrum should take the time to examine some of the problems brought to the forefront over the past year. In doing so, they can ...
Speech
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus
Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
Discussion Paper
States Are Recovering Lost Jobs at Surprisingly Similar Rates
The U.S. economy lost more than 8 million jobs between January 2008 and February 2010. In contrast with earlier recessions, employment declines were seen across almost all states. The extent varied: In this recession, states with big housing busts generally saw steeper job losses, especially in construction, while some states also had severe job losses driven by manufacturing declines. One feature of this employment recovery is that it?s actually been quite uniform across states?and much more uniform than in earlier recoveries. With few exceptions, states appear to be marching in lockstep.
Discussion Paper
The End of a Volatile Year: What Have Firms Told Us?
Speech
Financial Stability Factors and the Severity of the Current Recession [UBS European Virtual Conference]
Economic shocks happen, but the severity of the consequences depends on how fragile, or susceptible to financial instability, the economy was prior to the shock. In the U.S., excessive risk-taking behavior prior to COVID-19 is likely to delay the recovery, even though the initial response by fiscal and monetary policymakers was a prompt and substantial mitigant.
Working Paper
Pandemic Layoffs and the Role of Stay-At-Home Orders
We compile a novel high-frequency, detailed geographic dataset on mass layoffs from U.S. state labor departments. Using recent advances in difference-in-difference estimation with staggered treatment, we find that locally-mandated stay-at-home orders issued March 16–22, 2020 triggered mass layoffs equal to half a percent of the population in just one week. Our findings contribute to explanations for why job loss in 2020 was synchronous and catastrophic, yet temporary.
Speech
The Economic Outlook – Optimism Despite the Challenges Ahead
We enter 2021 with some optimism. The pandemic is likely to continue to be a problem for public health and the economy until widespread vaccinations take hold. Nonetheless, with substantial fiscal and monetary support, I expect a robust recovery starting in the second half of this year. I also expect that short-term interest rates near zero will be appropriate throughout this year, and that the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase long-term assets until the economy is on a stronger economic footing.