Search Results
Speech
Perspectives on the Eventual Economic Recovery
The past year with the pandemic has been grueling. Eleven months after the initial outbreak, economic outcomes for individuals and businesses still remain closely tied to finding and implementing effective public health policy. However, with the successful development of multiple vaccines, it is now possible to imagine much better macroeconomic outcomes ahead. My view is that policymakers must work to ensure that the benefits of the eventual recovery are widely shared. As I’ve mentioned, I believe that as we think about recovery from the pandemic, we should take the time to look for ways ...
Speech
The Economy’s Outlook, Challenges, and Way Forward
Recent economic data have been encouraging, but President Rosengren believes the most difficult part of the recovery is still ahead of us. A full recovery probably requires the availability of vaccines and more effective treatments for the virus because until then, many businesses and households are unlikely to return to more normal spending habits. While he anticipates a slowly improving economy, economic activity still faces serious headwinds. Potential financial impediments and challenges in the labor market make the recovery process more gradual than any of us would prefer. Improvement in ...
Speech
The Economy’s Outlook, Challenges, and Way Forward
President Rosengren’s comments were delivered at the Massachusetts Bankers Association’s New England Conference, and were based on a speech he delivered on September 23, 2020 to the Boston Economic Club.
Speech
Financial Stability Factors and the Severity of the Current Recession [UBS European Virtual Conference]
Economic shocks happen, but the severity of the consequences depends on how fragile, or susceptible to financial instability, the economy was prior to the shock. In the U.S., excessive risk-taking behavior prior to COVID-19 is likely to delay the recovery, even though the initial response by fiscal and monetary policymakers was a prompt and substantial mitigant.
Working Paper
Pandemic Layoffs and the Role of Stay-At-Home Orders
We compile a novel high-frequency, detailed geographic dataset on mass layoffs from U.S. state labor departments. Using recent advances in difference-in-difference estimation with staggered treatment, we find that locally-mandated stay-at-home orders issued March 16–22, 2020 triggered mass layoffs equal to half a percent of the population in just one week. Our findings contribute to explanations for why job loss in 2020 was synchronous and catastrophic, yet temporary.
Working Paper
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23
Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, but only ...
Discussion Paper
The Region Is Struggling to Recover from the Pandemic Recession
The pandemic struck the New York-Northern New Jersey region early and hard, and the economy is still struggling to recover nearly two years later. Indeed, employment fell by 20 percent in New York City as the pandemic took hold, a significantly sharper decline than for the nation as a whole, and the rest of the region wasn’t far behind, creating a much larger hole to dig out of than other parts of the country. While the region saw significant growth as the economy began to heal, growth has slowed noticeably, and job shortfalls—that is, the amount by which employment remains below ...
Speech
Opportunities for economic growth in Puerto Rico: remarks at the Puerto Rico Convention Center, San Juan, Puerto Rico
Remarks at the Puerto Rico Convention Center, San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Speech
The Economic Outlook – Optimism Despite the Challenges Ahead
We enter 2021 with some optimism. The pandemic is likely to continue to be a problem for public health and the economy until widespread vaccinations take hold. Nonetheless, with substantial fiscal and monetary support, I expect a robust recovery starting in the second half of this year. I also expect that short-term interest rates near zero will be appropriate throughout this year, and that the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase long-term assets until the economy is on a stronger economic footing.
Speech
Financial Stability Factors and the Severity of the Current Recession [Annual Robert Glauber Lecture]
With many central banks focused on keeping interest rates low for an extended period to achieve their mandates – for example in the last recovery – it is particularly important to watch for reaching-for-yield behavior and excessive risk-taking. Easy monetary policy requires more guardrails protecting against rising financial stability risks. Without financial stability governance and tools, recessions have the potential to be more severe and fall disproportionately on those that can least afford it. And the recessions are likely to be deeper and longer, requiring more fiscal and monetary ...