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Briefing
How Important Are Asset Price Fluctuations for Business Investment?
Karabarbounis, Marios; Patel, Kushal (2023-02)
Previous recessions in the U.S. revealed to economists and policymakers that weak macroeconomic conditions may have been worsened by financial distress. Economists have theorized that this association is explained by a decline in physical asset prices that often precede recessions. When physical asset prices decline, firms pledge less-valuable assets to banks, which leads banks to reduce lending. Consequently, firms are not able to finance their investments, which reduces overall economic activity. In this article, we review more recent literature that may indicate that this mechanism is ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 05

Journal Article
Small Business Performance in Industries in LMI Neighborhoods After the Great Recession: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles
O'Dell, Mark; Newberger, Robin G.; Toussaint-Comeau, Maude (2019)
Small businesses are essential to the economic infrastructure of both lower-income and higher-income neighborhoods. In this report, we compare small business performance in lower-income vs higher-income areas. Findings offer some directions for growing small businesses in LMI and ethnic/minority neighborhoods
Profitwise , Issue 3 , Pages 1-20

Working Paper
Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?
Haubrich, Joseph G. (2020-11-06)
Does the yield curve have the ability to predict output and recessions? At some times and in certain places, of course! But many details are matters of dispute: When and where does the yield curve predict successfully, which aspects of the curve matter most, and which economic forces account for the predictive ability? Over the years, an increasingly sophisticated set of tools, both statistical and theoretical, have addressed these issues. For the US, an inverted yield curve, particularly when the spread between the yield on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries becomes negative, has been a robust ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-34

Working Paper
Trading down and the business cycle
Rebelo, Sergio; Wong, Arlene; Jaimovich, Nir (2015-11-01)
The authors document two facts: First, during recessions consumers trade down in the quality of the goods and services they consume. Second, the production of low-quality goods is less labor intensive than that of high-quality goods. Therefore, when households trade down, labor demand falls, increasing the severity of recessions. The authors find that the trading-down phenomenon accounts for a substantial fraction of the fall in U.S. employment in the recent recession. They study two business cycle models that embed quality choice and find that the presence of quality choice magnifies the ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-5

Journal Article
Modeling Professional Recession Forecasts
Neely, Christopher J. (2023-10-10)
Professional forecasters use a wealth of information, including their own experience, to predict economic variables. But can a few publicly available series replicate their recession forecasts?
Economic Synopses , Issue 21 , Pages 3 pages

Not All Bursting Market Bubbles Have the Same Recessionary Effect
Wen, Yi; Arbogast, Iris (2021-02-15)
The popped IT bubble ushered in an eight-month recession in 2001. The burst housing bubble resulted in the Great Recession (2007-09). Why the difference?
On the Economy

Working Paper
Place-Based Consequences of Person-Based Transfer: Evidence from Recessions
Hershbein, Brad; Stuart, Bryan (2022-03-22)
This paper studies how government transfers respond to changes in local economic activity that emerge during recessions. Local labor markets that experience greater employment losses during recessions face persistent relative decreases in per capita earnings. However, these areas also experience persistent increases in per capita transfers, which offset 16 percent of the earnings loss on average. The increase in transfers is driven by unemployment insurance in the short run, and medical, retirement, and disability transfers in the long run. Our results show that nominally place-neutral ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-08

Is the U.S. in a Recession? What Key Economic Indicators Say
Owyang, Michael T.; Stewart, Ashley (2022-09-26)
The majority of economic indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee tracks to identify U.S. recessions are still showing growth. How have these measures behaved around past recessions?
On the Economy

Working Paper
How Well Did Social Security Mitigate the Effects of the Great Recession?
Sommer, Kamila; Peterman, William B. (2014-01-15)
This paper quantifies the welfare implications of the U.S. Social Security program during the Great Recession. We find that the average welfare losses due to the Great Recession for agents alive at the time of the shock are notably smaller in an economy with Social Security relative to an economy without a Social Security program. Moreover, Social Security is particularly effective at mitigating the welfare losses for agents who are poorer, less productive, or older at the time of the shock. Importantly, in addition to mitigating the welfare losses for these potentially more vulnerable ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-13

Working Paper
The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment during Cyclical Recoveries
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2023-11-03)
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the Phillips curve. We show that the natural rate closely tracked the actual rate during the long recovery that began in 2009 and ended in 2020. We explain how the common finding of research in the Phillips-curve framework of low-often extremely low-response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-33

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