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Discussion Paper
States Are Recovering Lost Jobs at Surprisingly Similar Rates
Orr, James A.; Bram, Jason (2013-06-26)
The U.S. economy lost more than 8 million jobs between January 2008 and February 2010. In contrast with earlier recessions, employment declines were seen across almost all states. The extent varied: In this recession, states with big housing busts generally saw steeper job losses, especially in construction, while some states also had severe job losses driven by manufacturing declines. One feature of this employment recovery is that it?s actually been quite uniform across states?and much more uniform than in earlier recoveries. With few exceptions, states appear to be marching in lockstep.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130626

The Relationship between Wage Growth and Inflation, One Recession Later
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2022-02-25)
Periods of high inflation generally are periods of low real wage growth. In the aftermath of the pandemic recession, is that still the case?
On the Economy

Working Paper
Machine Learning, the Treasury Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting
Puglia, Michael; Tucker, Adam (2020-05-20)
We use machine learning methods to examine the power of Treasury term spreads and other financial market and macroeconomic variables to forecast US recessions, vis-à-vis probit regression. In particular we propose a novel strategy for conducting cross-validation on classifiers trained with macro/financial panel data of low frequency and compare the results to those obtained from standard k-folds cross-validation. Consistent with the existing literature we find that, in the time series setting, forecast accuracy estimates derived from k-folds are biased optimistically, and cross-validation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-038

Journal Article
Using Tax-Time Savings Programs to Build Assets
Daniel, Hochberg (2014-01)
The recent financial crisis and subsequent recession had a debilitating effect on the wealth of many American families. In a report produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, it was estimated that household wealth declined 26 percent from its peak in 2007 to the trough in 2009. Not surprisingly, low- and moderate-income (LMI) families, who were already struggling financially prior to the crisis, were among the hardest hit. In 2008, nearly 30 percent of low-income families had zero or negative net worth.
Cascade , Volume 1

Working Paper
Household Financial Distress and the Burden of ‘Aggregate’ Shocks
Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2020-10-05)
In this paper we show that household-level financial distress (FD) varies greatly and can increase vulnerability to economic shocks. To do this, we establish three facts: (i) regions in the United States vary significantly in their “FD-intensity,” measured either by how much additional credit households can access or how delinquent they are on debts, (ii) shocks that are typically viewed as “aggregate” in nature hit geographic areas quite differently, and (iii) FD is an economic “pre-existing condition”: the share of an aggregate shock borne by a region is positively correlated ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-13

Journal Article
A tale of two states: the recession’s impact on N.Y. and N.J. school finances
Livingston, Max; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Bhalla, Ravi (2017-23-01)
Although schools play a crucial role in human capital formation and economic growth, relatively few studies consider the effect of recessions (and in particular the Great Recession) on schools. This article helps fill this gap by comparing and contrasting the effects of the Great Recession on school districts in New York and New Jersey. In fact, it is the first article to compare the impacts of the Great Recession on schools in different states. The authors find that the two states had very different experiences in the two years following the recession. While total school funding in New York ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 23-1 , Pages 30-42

The Real State of Family Wealth: Will COVID-19 Worsen Racial, Educational and Generational Gaps in the U.S.?
Kent, Ana Hernández; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Emmons, William R. (2020-11-19)
A new quarterly assessment tracks the pandemic’s impact on wealth trends by demographic groups.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells
Silos, Pedro; Fang, Lei (2020-07-13)
This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, afteran unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage growth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-9

Journal Article
Regional Spotlight: The State of the States
Flora, Paul R. (2016-10)
The U.S. economy has been expanding for seven years ? but don?t tell that to a handful of states that have suffered recessions recently. Paul R. Flora discusses how Philadelphia Fed indexes may aid in the tricky business of identifying recession patterns among the 50 states.
Regional Spotlight , Issue Q4 , Pages 8-15

Hot Money Credits to Kick-Start a Stalled Economy?
Andolfatto, David (2020-05-29)
Stimulus checks that must be spent within a certain amount of time could help trigger spending if the economy continues to stall.
On the Economy

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