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Working Paper
What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data
Velde, Francois R. (2020-07-07)
Burns and Mitchell (1946, 109) found a recession of “exceptional brevity and moderate amplitude.” I confirm their judgment by examining a variety of high-frequency, aggregate and cross-sectional data. Industrial output fell sharply but rebounded within months. Retail seemed little affected and there is no evidence of increased business failures or stressed financial system. Cross-sectional data on manufacturing employment indicates that most of the recession, brief as it was, was due to the Armistice rather than the epidemic. Data from the nationwide coal industry documents the sharp but ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-11

Report
The impact of the Great Recession on school district finances: evidence from New York
Setren, Elizabeth; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2011)
Despite education?s fundamental role in human capital formation and growth, there is no research that examines the effect of the Great Recession (or any other recession) on schools. Our paper begins to fill this gap. Exploiting detailed data on school finance indicators and an analysis of trend shifts, we examine how the Great Recession affected school funding in New York State. While we find no evidence of effects on either total revenue or expenditure, there were important compositional changes to both. There is strong evidence of substitution of funds on the revenue side?the infusion of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 534

How Recessions Impact Household Net Worth
Mendez-Carbajo, Diego (2020-11-23)
Recouping net worth lost during three recessions proved uneven for those with the least wealth.
On the Economy

Industry Concentration May Help Explain Divergent Business Cycles
Gascon, Charles S.; Haas, Jacob (2020-08-13)
U.S. states with high concentrations of certain industries may help explain why these areas diverge from the national cycle of recessions or expansions.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells
Silos, Pedro; Fang, Lei (2020-07-13)
This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, afteran unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage growth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-9

Newsletter
Have Borrowers Recovered from Foreclosures during the Great Recession?
Mazumder, Bhashkar; Dharmasankar, Sharada (2016)
This article examines the current financial health of individuals who experienced a home mortgage foreclosure during the Great Recession and assesses the degree to which they have recovered relative to those who lost their homes before the downturn.
Chicago Fed Letter

V-Shaped Recovery Eludes G-7 Countries
Arbogast, Iris; Wen, Yi (2020-11-16)
Economic growth should overshoot its long-run trend to make up for the downturn caused by the pandemic. So far, this hasn’t happened.
On the Economy

Newsletter
Inequality and Recessions
De Nardi, Mariacristina; Amromin, Gene; Schulze, Karl (2018)
The increase in inequality over the past several decades has received widespread attention from both academics and the public at large. While much of this discourse centers on either the causes or normative implications of increasing inequality, it is important to ask whether the widening gap between the rich and poor has any direct effects on macroeconomic aggregates and, in particular, on the severity of the Great Recession, when output and consumption dropped precipitously and were slow to recover (see figure 1).
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
Measuring Small Business Financial Health
Onyeago, Chinwe; Newberger, Robin G.; Everett, Craig; Longworth, Susan (2015)
Throughout the Great Recession and continuing into the recovery, small businesses have played an important role in creating jobs and stabilizing communities. Stories of small business owners overcoming obstacles to provide valuable services and employment are highlighted regularly by pundits, politicians and policymakers alike. However, little attention has focused on the question of what drives the financial health of these often young, often very small businesses.
Profitwise , Issue 2 , Pages 1-9

Working Paper
What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data
Velde, Francois R. (2020-04-15)
Burns and Mitchell (1946, 109) found a recession of "exceptional brevity and moderate amplitude." I confirm their judgment by examining a variety of high-frequency data. Industrial output fell sharply but rebounded within months. Retail seemed little affected and there is no evidence of increased business failures or stressed financial system. Cross-sectional data from the coal industry documents the short-lived impact of the epidemic on labor supply. The Armistice possibly prolonged the 1918 recession, short as it was, by injecting momentary uncertainty. Interventions to hinder the contagion ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-11

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