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How Recessions Impact Household Net Worth
Mendez-Carbajo, Diego (2020-11-23)
Recouping net worth lost during three recessions proved uneven for those with the least wealth.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2021-07-08)
Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups---those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020. They wait out periods of non-work with the understanding that their jobs still exist and that they will be recalled. We show that the resulting temporary-layoff unemployment dissipates quickly following a spike. Potential workers without jobs constitute what we call jobless unemployment. Shocks that elevate jobless ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-17

Working Paper
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data
Galvão, Ana B.; Owyang, Michael T. (2020-09)
High-frequency financial and economic activity indicators are usually time aggregated before forecasts of low-frequency macroeconomic events, such as recessions, are computed. We propose a mixed-frequency modelling alternative that delivers high-frequency probability forecasts (including their confidence bands) for these low-frequency events. The new approach is compared with single-frequency alternatives using loss functions adequate to rare event forecasting. We provide evidence that: (i) weekly-sampled spread improves over monthly-sampled to predict NBER recessions, (ii) the predictive ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-028

Report
Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle
Chauvet, Marcelle; Potter, Simon M. (2001)
The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined. Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be ...
Staff Reports , Paper 126

Discussion Paper
How Did the Great Recession Affect New York State's Public Schools?
Setren, Elizabeth; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2012-01-30)
Surprisingly, there is no literature on how recessions (including the Great Recession) have affected schools. Perhaps this is because educational funding stresses and decisions vary among and within states, which makes it hard to reach general conclusions. Yet schools play an indispensable role in our society, educating the populace and building the nation’s future. Therefore, it is important to understand how the Great Recession is affecting public spending on schools, the delivery of education services, and student learning. In this post, we analyze one state’s experience, drawing on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120130

Speech
A Different Kind of Recession
Williams, John C. (2020-06-30)
Remarks at the Institute of International Finance: Central Banking in the Age of COVID-19 Summit (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Report
Abbott and Bacon Districts: education finances during the Great Recession
Sutherland, Sarah; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2012)
In the State of New Jersey, any child between the age of five and eighteen has the constitutional right to a thorough and efficient education. The State of New Jersey also has one of the country?s most rigid policies regarding a balanced budget come fiscal end. When state and local revenues took a big hit in the most recent recession, officials had to make tough decisions about education spending. This paper exploits rich panel data and trend-shift analysis to analyze how school finances in the Abbott and Bacon School Districts, as well as the high-poverty districts in general, were affected ...
Staff Reports , Paper 573

Journal Article
Spotlight on Research: Down Payment Assistance Plays Critical Role in Affordable Homeownership
Smith, Marvin M. (2016-04)
In the aftermath of the recent Great Recession, there has been a tightening in mortgage lending practices. This cautious atmosphere has been prompted in large part by the rash of foreclosures in the housing market that accompanied the financial crisis. One potential safeguard is the existence of a down payment requirement that must be met by prospective homebuyers as a condition of securing a mortgage. The rationale is that when individuals invest their own money in the form of a down payment, the potential homebuyers will be more motivated to maintain their mortgage obligations. For those ...
Cascade , Volume 2

Newsletter
Have Borrowers Recovered from Foreclosures during the Great Recession?
Mazumder, Bhashkar; Dharmasankar, Sharada (2016)
This article examines the current financial health of individuals who experienced a home mortgage foreclosure during the Great Recession and assesses the degree to which they have recovered relative to those who lost their homes before the downturn.
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data
Galvão, Ana B.; Owyang, Michael T. (2022-04)
Working Papers , Paper 2020-028

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