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How Recessions Impact Household Net Worth
Mendez-Carbajo, Diego (2020-11-23)
Recouping net worth lost during three recessions proved uneven for those with the least wealth.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data
Galvão, Ana B.; Owyang, Michael T. (2020-09)
High-frequency financial and economic activity indicators are usually time aggregated before forecasts of low-frequency macroeconomic events, such as recessions, are computed. We propose a mixed-frequency modelling alternative that delivers high-frequency probability forecasts (including their confidence bands) for these low-frequency events. The new approach is compared with single-frequency alternatives using loss functions adequate to rare event forecasting. We provide evidence that: (i) weekly-sampled spread improves over monthly-sampled to predict NBER recessions, (ii) the predictive ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-028

Report
Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle
Chauvet, Marcelle; Potter, Simon M. (2001)
The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined. Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be ...
Staff Reports , Paper 126

Speech
A Different Kind of Recession
Williams, John C. (2020-06-30)
Remarks at the Institute of International Finance: Central Banking in the Age of COVID-19 Summit (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Report
Abbott and Bacon Districts: education finances during the Great Recession
Sutherland, Sarah; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2012)
In the State of New Jersey, any child between the age of five and eighteen has the constitutional right to a thorough and efficient education. The State of New Jersey also has one of the country?s most rigid policies regarding a balanced budget come fiscal end. When state and local revenues took a big hit in the most recent recession, officials had to make tough decisions about education spending. This paper exploits rich panel data and trend-shift analysis to analyze how school finances in the Abbott and Bacon School Districts, as well as the high-poverty districts in general, were affected ...
Staff Reports , Paper 573

Journal Article
Spotlight on Research: Down Payment Assistance Plays Critical Role in Affordable Homeownership
Smith, Marvin M. (2016-04)
In the aftermath of the recent Great Recession, there has been a tightening in mortgage lending practices. This cautious atmosphere has been prompted in large part by the rash of foreclosures in the housing market that accompanied the financial crisis. One potential safeguard is the existence of a down payment requirement that must be met by prospective homebuyers as a condition of securing a mortgage. The rationale is that when individuals invest their own money in the form of a down payment, the potential homebuyers will be more motivated to maintain their mortgage obligations. For those ...
Cascade , Volume 2

Newsletter
Have Borrowers Recovered from Foreclosures during the Great Recession?
Mazumder, Bhashkar; Dharmasankar, Sharada (2016)
This article examines the current financial health of individuals who experienced a home mortgage foreclosure during the Great Recession and assesses the degree to which they have recovered relative to those who lost their homes before the downturn.
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data
Galvão, Ana B.; Owyang, Michael T. (2022-04)
Working Papers , Paper 2020-028

Journal Article
Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?
Glick, Reuven; Kouchekinia, Noah; Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2021-07-12)
Household surveys indicate that consumers expect higher inflation this year than in recent years, as the U.S. economy rebounds from the deep recession. This has coincided with a surge in commodity prices, as strong demand for goods like gas, food, and construction materials is catching producers with low supplies. Evidence suggests that households respond to commodity price increases by raising their expectations of future inflation. However, since surges in commodity prices are transitory, their effects on inflation expectations—particularly long-term expectations—are modest and ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 19 , Pages 06

Discussion Paper
The Post‑Pandemic Shift in Retirement Expectations in the U.S.
Aidala, Felix; Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2024-05-09)
One of the most striking features of the labor market recovery following the pandemic recession has been the surge in quits from 2021 to mid-2023. This surge, often referred to as the Great Resignation, or the Great Reshuffle, was uncommonly large for an economic expansion. In this post, we call attention to a related labor market change that has not been previously highlighted—a persistent change in retirement expectations, with workers reporting much lower expectations of working full-time beyond ages 62 and 67. This decline is particularly notable for female workers and lower-income ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240509

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