Search Results
Journal Article
Swap meet
How a real estate law has driven up farmland prices.
Journal Article
Has the recent real estate bubble biased the output gap?
We offer a word of caution to policymakers: Policies based on point estimates of the output gap may not rest on solid ground.
Journal Article
Noteworthy: commercial real estate: recession takes toll, banks put at risk
Texas' commercial real estate market steadily worsened as recession took hold in 2009. Commercial real estate's woes don't bode well for banks already struggling with losses from residential loans. The number of distressed properties--those in foreclosure, in bankruptcy or restructured--is rising.
Working Paper
Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value
Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for long horizon investors, time diversification has been mostly investigated in asset menus without real estate and focusing on in-sample experiments. This paper evaluates ex post, out-of-sample gains from diversification when E-REITs belong to the investment opportunity set. We find that diversification ...
Speech
Housing and the economic recovery
Remarks at the New Jersey Bankers Association Economic Forum, Iselin, New Jersey.
Speech
The U.S. economic outlook
Remarks at the Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics, Lexington, Virginia.
Journal Article
Commercial real estate and low interest rates
Commercial real estate construction faltered during the 2007 recession and has improved only slowly during the recovery. However, low interest rates have led to higher property valuations and are clearly benefiting the sector. The recovery of commercial property prices has been notable. Some measures suggest that, in some segments of the market, prices are close to their pre-recession highs. Valuation measures do not suggest that current prices are excessive.
Working Paper
Investing for the long-run in European real estate
We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse investor who diversifies among European stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and statistical models capturing predictability in risk premia. Importantly, under one of the scenarios, the investor takes into account the parameter uncertainty implied by the use of estimated coefficients to characterize predictability. We find that real estate ought to play a significant role in optimal ...
Report
Defaults and losses on commercial real estate bonds during the Great Depression era
We employ a unique data set of public commercial real estate (CRE) bonds issued during the Great Depression era (1920-32) to determine their frequency of default and total loss given default. Default rates on these bonds far exceeded those originated in subsequent periods, driven in part by the greater economic stress of the Depression as well as the lower level of financial sophistication of investors and structures that prevailed in 1920-32. Our results confirm that making loans with higher loan-to-value ratios results in higher rates of default and loss. They also support the business ...