Search Results
Report
Defaults and losses on commercial real estate bonds during the Great Depression era
We employ a unique data set of public commercial real estate (CRE) bonds issued during the Great Depression era (1920-32) to determine their frequency of default and total loss given default. Default rates on these bonds far exceeded those originated in subsequent periods, driven in part by the greater economic stress of the Depression as well as the lower level of financial sophistication of investors and structures that prevailed in 1920-32. Our results confirm that making loans with higher loan-to-value ratios results in higher rates of default and loss. They also support the business ...
Speech
A bit better, but very far from best
Remarks at the Fordham Corporate Law Center Lecture, New York.
Working Paper
Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value
Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for long horizon investors, time diversification has been mostly investigated in asset menus without real estate and focusing on in-sample experiments. This paper evaluates ex post, out-of-sample gains from diversification when E-REITs belong to the investment opportunity set. We find that diversification ...
Journal Article
Real estate could pose challenges for some banks
The Southeast's banking industry overall is in good shape, with healthy earnings and capital levels. But upheaval in the region's real estate markets could pose challenges to institutions.
Journal Article
Commercial real estate and low interest rates
Commercial real estate construction faltered during the 2007 recession and has improved only slowly during the recovery. However, low interest rates have led to higher property valuations and are clearly benefiting the sector. The recovery of commercial property prices has been notable. Some measures suggest that, in some segments of the market, prices are close to their pre-recession highs. Valuation measures do not suggest that current prices are excessive.
Journal Article
Has the recent real estate bubble biased the output gap?
We offer a word of caution to policymakers: Policies based on point estimates of the output gap may not rest on solid ground.
Journal Article
How Much Would China’s GDP Respond to a Slowdown in Housing Activity?
We analyze China's interindustry connections and show that China?s housing activity has become increasingly important to its GDP growth. Our results suggest that a 10 percent decline in final demand for real estate and housing-related construction would lead to a decline in total output of 2.2 percent, an effect more than two times larger than it would have been 10 years ago.
Journal Article
Real estate markets in 1952
Journal Article
Sold! : James River islands auctioned
Journal Article
Noteworthy: commercial real estate: recession takes toll, banks put at risk
Texas' commercial real estate market steadily worsened as recession took hold in 2009. Commercial real estate's woes don't bode well for banks already struggling with losses from residential loans. The number of distressed properties--those in foreclosure, in bankruptcy or restructured--is rising.