Search Results
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and The Medium-Run Natural Rate
The natural rate of interest is an elusive concept in theory and practice. However, it is essential for central banks’ calibration of the policy rate. Model consistent measures are often too extreme to be used in practice. On the other hand, empirical measures lack the full backing of theory to make them proper benchmarks. This paper proposes a medium-run measure of the natural rate that averages out some excessive fluctuations, while retaining enough connection to economic theory to make it optimal under certain circumstances. The discussion also provides a framework on how to evaluate and ...
Speech
All the Stars We Cannot See
Remarks at the Banco de México Centennial Conference, Mexico City, Mexico.
Speech
Living Life Near the ZLB
Remarks at 2019 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA), New York City.
Speech
When the Facts Change…: remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System, Zürich, Switzerland
Remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System, Zrich, Switzerland.
Journal Article
The Fault in R-Star
Has the natural rate of interest lost its luster as a navigation aid for monetary policy?
Speech
Moving toward 'normal' U.S. monetary policy: remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia
Remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia.
Speech
Why Were Forecasts Off?
It is notoriously difficult to predict where the economy is headed. Even in that context, I don’t think it is controversial to say that the last few years have proven particularly challenging for forecasts.The U.S. economy, particularly its consumer, has been much more resilient to rate increases than most expected. Most anticipated we would be cutting rates by now, but that has not yet been the case.I do believe there are still lags playing out — and that all this tightening will eventually slow the economy further.I’m open to the idea that r-star has shifted up somewhat. It is too ...
Speech
No Man Is an Island
Remarks at 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
Speech
The economic outlook: the ‘new normal’ is now: remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City
Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech
'Normal' monetary policy in words and deeds: remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City
Remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City.