Search Results
Speech
The Theory of Average Inflation Targeting
Remarks at Bank of Israel/CEPR Conference on “Inflation: Dynamics, Expectations, and Targeting” (delivered via videoconference).
Speech
Remarks at the 42nd Annual Central Banking Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the 42nd Annual Central Banking Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech
All the Stars We Cannot See
Remarks at the Banco de México Centennial Conference, Mexico City, Mexico.
Speech
Why Are You (Y* R* U*)
Remarks at Hofstra University's Graduate Commencement, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York.
Speech
'Normal' monetary policy in words and deeds: remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City
Remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City.
Speech
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: Past, Present, and Future
Remarks at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and The Medium-Run Natural Rate
The natural rate of interest is an elusive concept in theory and practice. However, it is essential for central banks’ calibration of the policy rate. Model consistent measures are often too extreme to be used in practice. On the other hand, empirical measures lack the full backing of theory to make them proper benchmarks. This paper proposes a medium-run measure of the natural rate that averages out some excessive fluctuations, while retaining enough connection to economic theory to make it optimal under certain circumstances. The discussion also provides a framework on how to evaluate and ...
Working Paper
The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
The level of the social discount rate (SDR) is a crucial factor for evaluating the costs ofclimate change. We demonstrate that the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate isthe fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs. Much recent research has pointed to adecrease in the equilibrium real interest rate since the 1990s. Using new estimates of thisdecline, we document a pronounced downward shift in the entire term structure of SDRsin recent decades. This lower new normal for interest rates and SDRs has substantiallyboosted the estimated economic loss from climate change and the social ...
Discussion Paper
The Evolution of Short-Run r* after the Pandemic
This post discusses the evolution of the short-run natural rate of interest, or short-run r*, over the past year and a half according to the New York Fed DSGE model, and the implications of this evolution for inflation and output projections. We show that, from the model’s perspective, short-run r* has increased notably over the past year, to some extent outpacing the large increase in the policy rate. One implication of these findings is that the drag on the economy from recent monetary policy tightening may have been limited, rationalizing why economic conditions have remained relatively ...
Journal Article
The Fault in R-Star
Has the natural rate of interest lost its luster as a navigation aid for monetary policy?