Search Results
Speech
'Normal' monetary policy in words and deeds: remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City
Remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City.
Speech
The Theory of Average Inflation Targeting
Remarks at Bank of Israel/CEPR Conference on “Inflation: Dynamics, Expectations, and Targeting” (delivered via videoconference).
Speech
The Longer-Run Framework: A Look Ahead
Remarks at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Virtual Series: The Road Ahead for Central Banks (delivered via videoconference).
Working Paper
The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
The level of the social discount rate (SDR) is a crucial factor for evaluating the costs ofclimate change. We demonstrate that the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate isthe fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs. Much recent research has pointed to adecrease in the equilibrium real interest rate since the 1990s. Using new estimates of thisdecline, we document a pronounced downward shift in the entire term structure of SDRsin recent decades. This lower new normal for interest rates and SDRs has substantiallyboosted the estimated economic loss from climate change and the social ...
Speech
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: Past, Present, and Future
Remarks at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.
Speech
Moving toward 'normal' U.S. monetary policy: remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia
Remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia.
Journal Article
The Asymmetric Costs of Misperceiving R-star
The natural rate of interest, or r-star, is used to evaluate whether monetary policy is restrictive or supportive of economic activity. However, this benchmark rate can only be estimated, and policymakers’ misperceptions of the level of the natural rate can carry substantial economic costs in terms of unemployment and inflation. A scenario using mistaken perceptions shows that the costs of overestimating the natural rate are greater than the cost of underestimating it if policy space is limited by the effective lower bound on the nominal federal funds rate.
Discussion Paper
Comparing Apples to Apples: “Synthetic Real‑Time” Estimates of R‑Star
Estimates of the natural rate of interest, commonly called “r-star,” garner a great deal of attention among economists, central bankers, and financial market participants. The natural interest rate is the real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate expected to prevail when supply and demand in the economy are in balance and inflation is stable. The natural rate cannot be measured directly but must be inferred from other data. When assessing estimates of r-star, it is important to distinguish between real-time estimates and retrospective estimates. Real-time estimates answer the question: ...
Speech
No Man Is an Island
Remarks at 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
Journal Article
The Fault in R-Star
Has the natural rate of interest lost its luster as a navigation aid for monetary policy?