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Working Paper
A Portfolio-Balance Approach to the Nominal Term Structure
King, Thomas B. (2013-11-20)
Explanations of why changes in the relative quantities of safe debt seem to affect asset prices often appeal informally to a ?portfolio balance? mechanism. I show how this type of effect can be incorporated in a general class of structural, arbitrage-free asset-pricing models using a numerical solution method that allows for a wide range of nonlinearities. I consider some applications in which the Treasury market is isolated, investors have mean-variance preferences, and the short-rate process is truncated at zero. Despite its simplicity, a version of this model incorporating inflation can ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-18

Report
Open-Ended Treasury Purchases: From Market Functioning to Financial Easing
D'Amico, Stefania; Gillet, Max; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Seida, Tim (2026-02-01)
We assess whether the Fed’s asset purchases can be tailored to either restore market functioning or provide economic stimulus. When the communicated goal is restoring market functioning and purchases’ implementation is flexible, flow effects are significant: relative price deviations narrow. However, stock effects remain near zero and hence not stimulative. When the communicated goal links purchases to the achievement of the dual mandate, improving their size’s predictability, stock effects rise consistently above zero. When the communicated implementation improves the predictability of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1183

Working Paper
Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates
Dedola, Luca; Mehl, Arnaud; Grab, Johannes; Georgiadis, Georgios (2018-11-02)
We estimate the effects of quantitative easing (QE) measures by the ECB and the Federal Reserve on the US dollar-euro exchange rate at frequencies and horizons relevant for policymakers. To do so, we derive a theoretically-consistent local projection regression equation from the standard asset pricing formulation of exchange rate determination. We then proxy unobserved QE shocks by future changes in the relative size of central banks? balance sheets, which we instrument with QE announcements in two-stage least squares regressions in order to account for their endogeneity. We find that QE ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 350

Working Paper
Employment Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy : Evidence from QE
Zimmermann, Thomas; Luck, Stephan (2018-10-24)
This paper investigates the effect of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy on employment via a bank lending channel. We find that banks with higher mortgage-backed securities holdings issued relatively more loans after the first and third rounds of quantitative easing (QE1 and QE3). While additional volume is concentrated in refinanced mortgages after QE1, increases are driven by newly originated home purchase mortgages and additional commercial and industrial lending after QE3. Using spatial variation, we show that regions with a high share of affected banks experienced ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-071

Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
Neely, Christopher J. (2020-11-08)
This paper argues that one cannot precisely estimate the persistence of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) effects, especially with short samples and few observations. To make this point, we illustrate that the most influential model on the topic exhibits structural instability, and sensitivity to specification and outliers that render the conclusions unreliable. Restricted models that respect more plausible asset return predictability are more stable and imply that UMP shocks were persistent. Estimates of the dynamic effects of shocks should respect the limited predictability in asset ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-04

Working Paper
QE, Bank Liquidity Risk Management, and Non-Bank Funding: Evidence from U.S. Administrative Data
Darst, Matt; Kokas, Sotirios; Kontonikas, Alexandros; Peydró, José-Luis; Vardoulakis, Alexandros (2025-04-22)
We show that the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy is limited by how banks adjust credit supply and manage liquidity risk in response to fragile non-bank funding. For identification, we use granular U.S. administrative data on deposit accounts and loan-level commitments, matched with bank-firm supervisory balance sheets. Quantitative easing increases bank fragility by triggering a large inflow of uninsured deposits from non-bank financial institutions. In response, banks that are more exposed to this fragility actively manage their liquidity risk by offering better rates to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-030

Working Paper
How sensitive is the economy to large interest rate increases? Evidence from the taper tantrum
Sinha, Nitish R.; Smolyansky, Michael (2022-12)
The “taper tantrum” of 2013 represents one of the largest monetary policy shocks since the 1980s. During this episode, long-term interest rates spiked 100 basis points—a move unintentionally induced by policymakers. However, this had no observable negative effect on the overall U.S. economy. Output, employment, and other important variables, all performed either in line with or better than consensus forecasts, often improving considerably relative to their earlier trends. We conclude that, from low levels, a 100 basis point increase in long-term interest rates is probably too small to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-085

Working Paper
Unconventional Monetary Policy and Local Fiscal Policy
Bi, Huixin; Traum, Nora (2022-11-07)
Following the onset of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve employed an unconventional monetary policy that directly intervened in municipal bond markets. We characterize the fiscal and macroeconomic implications of such central bank actions in a New Keynesian model of a monetary union. We assume that state and local governments are subject to a loan-in-advance constraint, reflecting that with lumpy cash flows, they often finance a fraction of expenditures by issuing short-term bonds. The municipal debt is held by financial intermediaries, who alsosupply credit to the private sector. Direct ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 22-15

Report
Managing Monetary Policy Normalization
Benigno, Gianluca; Benigno, Pierpaolo (2022-05-01)
We propose a new framework for monetary policy analysis to study monetary policy normalization when exiting a liquidity trap. The optimal combination of reserves and interest rate policy requires an increase in liquidity (reserves) a few quarters after the policy rate is set at the effective lower bound. Removal of accommodation requires that quantitative tightening starts before the liftoff of the policy rate. Moreover, the withdrawal of liquidity takes place at a very slow pace relative to the normalization of the policy rate.
Staff Reports , Paper 1015

Journal Article
Did quantitative easing work?
Yu, Edison (2016-01)
Did QE lower yields and stimulate the economy? What about risks? Weighing the evidence requires a bit of theory.
Economic Insights , Volume 1 , Issue 1 , Pages 5-13

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