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Speech
The road to recovery: Hudson Valley
Dudley, William (2011)
Remarks at the State University of New York at New Paltz, New Paltz, New York.
Speech , Paper 57

Conference Paper
The rise of offshoring: it's not wine for cloth anymore
Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Grossman, Gene M. (2006)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Report
A decade lost and found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Soto, Raimundo; Bergoeing, Raphael (2001)
Chile and Mexico experienced severe economic crises in the early 1980s. This paper analyzes four possible explanations for why Chile recovered much faster than did Mexico. Comparing data from the two countries allows us to rule out a monetarist explanation, an explanation based on falls in real wages and real exchange rates, and a debt overhang explanation. Using growth accounting, a calibrated growth model, and economic theory, we conclude that the crucial difference between the two countries was the earlier policy reforms in Chile that generated faster productivity growth. The most crucial ...
Staff Report , Paper 292

Journal Article
Productivity During and Since the Pandemic
Fernald, John G.; Li, Huiyu; Meisenbacher, Brigid C.; Yalcin, Aren S. (2024-11-25)
U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the massive economic upheaval. As the economy recovered, the level of productivity retreated to its slow pre-pandemic trend. As of mid-2024, it remained close to but just above that trend. The surge and retreat in productivity follows the pre-pandemic cyclical relationship in which U.S. productivity rises temporarily in recessions. This example highlights the need to look through temporary cyclical effects when trying to infer longer-run trends.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 31 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Some implications of using prices to measure productivity in a two-sector growth model
Marquis, Milton H.; Trehan, Bharat (2003)
We construct a 2 sector growth model with sector specific technology shocks where one sector produces intermediate goods while the other produces final goods. Theoretical restrictions from this model are used to compute the time series for sector-specific TFPs based solely on factor prices and the relative price of intermediate goods to final goods over the 1959-2000 period. An aggregate TFP measure based on these series appears quite similar to the multifactor productivity measure constructed by the BLS. We find statistical evidence of structural breaks in the growth rate of our productivity ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2001-10

Conference Paper
Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity
Rich, Robert W.; Kahn, James A. (2003-11)
The acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate will remain high. In this paper, we draw on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity - namely consumption and labor compensation - to help estimate trend productivity growth. We treat that trend as a common factor with two "regimes" high-growth and low-growth. Our analysis picks up striking evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early 1970s in the other direction. In addition, we find that ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov

Working Paper
Roads to prosperity? assessing the link between public capital and productivity
Fernald, John G. (1997)
At a macroeconomic level, infrastructure and productivity are positively correlated in the United States and other countries. However, it remains unclear whether this correlation reflects causation, and if so, whether causation runs from infrastructure to productivity, or the reverse. This paper focuses on roads, and finds that vehicle-intensive industries benefit disproportionately from road-building: when road growth changes, productivity growth changes more in industries that are more vehicle intensive. These results suggest that causation runs from infrastructure to productivity. However, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 592

Journal Article
National productivity statistics
Webb, Roy H. (1998-01)
Economic Quarterly , Issue Win , Pages 45-64

Journal Article
Fed governor says productivity fosters growth
anonymous (2005-01-01)
Financial Update , Volume 18 , Issue Q 1

Report
The economic performance of cartels: evidence from the New Deal U.S. sugar manufacturing cartel, 1934-74
Bridgman, Benjamin; Schmitz, James A.; Qi, Shi (2009)
We study the U.S. sugar manufacturing cartel that was created during the New Deal. This was a legal-cartel that lasted 40 years (1934-74). As a legal-cartel, the industry was assured widespread adherence to domestic and import sales quotas (given it had access to government enforcement powers). But it also meant accepting government-sponsored cartel-provisions. These provisions significantly distorted production at each factory and also where the industry was located. These distortions were reflected in, for example, a declining industry recovery rate, that is, the pounds of white sugar ...
Staff Report , Paper 437

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