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Journal Article
Corporate culture in banking

Until recently, regulatory discourse has paid scant attention to the issue of organizational culture in banking. Yet ethical lapses and systematic weaknesses exposed in the 2007-09 financial crisis suggest that future policy dialogue is unlikely to ignore culture?s significance. Drawing from an approach developed in organizational behavior research, the author introduces a framework for diagnosing and changing corporate culture in a way that more effectively supports the bank?s growth strategy and induces behavior that enhances financial stability. The normative exercise, highlighting the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Aug , Pages 5-16

Journal Article
Commodity prices and PCE inflation

Commodity prices have soared several times in recent years, raising concerns that overall inflation could rise substantially. However, crops, oil, and natural gas make up only about 5% of the cost of U.S. consumer goods and services. Thus, about one percentage point of the 10% cumulative inflation since 2007 reflects price rises in these important commodity categories. When the contribution of these commodities is subtracted from overall inflation, the resulting pattern is remarkably similar to that of core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy

Any research or policy analysis exercise in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. This paper discusses in detail the specification of a six-variable vector error-correction forecasting model. We test for cointegration among those variables: the CPI, the implicit price deflator for GDP, real money balances (M1), the federal funds rate, the yield on long-term (10-year) government bonds, and real GDP. We also examine the estimated dynamic parameters of the vector error correction structure, and analyze the properties of the model residuals ...
Working Papers , Paper 1997-008

Working Paper
ATM surcharge bans and bank market structure: the case of Iowa and its neighbors

It is frequently claimed that high ATM surcharges actually attract customers to the banks that impose them, particularly if they operate large ATM networks. By exploiting as "natural experiments" two events associated with the lifting of surcharge bans in Iowa and in the states that neighbor Iowa, this paper seeks to test for the implications of this phenomenon as it applies to the market shares of banking institutions and to several aspects of market structure. Consistent with these implications, results of "difference-in-difference" analyses suggest that the shares of larger market ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2005-46

Journal Article
An Introduction to Web3 with Implications for Financial Services

Web3 is used to describe the next iteration of the internet in which decentralized services are automated on blockchains. This paper describes the elements of Web3 including blockchains and tokens. It describes the largest decentralized finance protocols and some specific services where blockchain and tokens can be used. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of some regulatory challenges.
Policy Hub , Volume 2023 , Issue 3

Journal Article
The Connection Between Social Security Disability Insurance and High Unemployment

Even as national unemployment has fallen, counties with persistently high unemployment also have more disability.
Economic Synopses , Issue 4 , Pages 1-2

Working Paper
An analysis of time-series estimates of capacity utilization

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 95-37

Journal Article
Credit History

Book Review of "The Engine of Enterprise: Credit in America" by Rowena Olegario, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2016, 291 pages.
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 27-27

Journal Article
U.S. fiscal policy: headwind or tailwind?

Aggregate state, local, and federal fiscal policy was expansionary during the Great Recession and the initial stages of recovery, providing a tailwind to economic growth. Federal fiscal policy in particular was more expansionary than usual, according to a historical analysis, even when the weakness of the economy is taken into account. However, during the past year, aggregate government budgetary policy has reversed course. Over the next few years, as federal fiscal policy shifts toward austerity, it is likely to be a headwind against economic growth.
FRBSF Economic Letter

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