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Discussion Paper
The Spillover Effects of COVID-19 on Productivity throughout the Supply Chain
Agwam, Victoria E.; Azar, Pablo; Frye, Kyra (2021-09-27)
While the shocks from COVID-19 were concentrated in a handful of contact-intensive industries, they had rippling effects throughout the economy, which culminated in a considerable decline in U.S. GDP. In this post, we estimate how much of the fall in U.S. GDP during the pandemic was driven by spillover effects from the productivity losses of contact-intensive industries.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210927

Newsletter
The Global Diffusion of Ideas and Its Impact on Productivity and Growth
Oberfield, Ezra; Buera, Francisco J. (2016)
Economic growth often comes hand in hand with the growth of trade. However, according to quantitative models that rely on standard static mechanisms, the gains from trade are fairly small. This article introduces a model to study the diffusion of ideas across countries as a means of increasing productivity and provides a quantitative assessment of the role of trade in the transmission of knowledge.
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
Comparative Advantage and Moonlighting
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Auray, Stéphane (2021-08)
We document three facts: (i) Higher educated workers are more likely to moonlight; (ii) conditional on education, workers with higher wages are less likely to moonlight; and (iii) the prevalence of moonlighting is declining over time for all education groups. We develop an equilibrium model of the labor market to explain these patterns. A dominating income effect explains the negative correlation of moonlighting with productivity in the cross section and the downward trend over time. A higher part-to-full time pay differential for skilled workers (a comparative advantage) explains the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-016

Journal Article
How Long Do Rising Temperatures Affect Economic Growth?
Casey, Gregory; Fried, Stephie; Goode, Ethan (2023-06-26)
How might rising temperatures around the world affect the growth rate of GDP per person? Examining data across countries over the past half-century shows that a change in temperature affects GDP growth, but only temporarily. Combining estimates from past data with a simple growth model can help project the impacts of future higher temperatures on GDP per person by country. These projections suggest that total global losses in output per person could be substantial, though smaller than if a given change in temperature had a permanent effect on GDP growth.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 15 , Pages 6

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Inokuma, Hiroshi; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the shape of a business's productivity life-cycle profile determines the direction of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. Japan's expected decline in population ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Report
Productivity Improvements and Markup Normalization Can Support Further Wage Gains without Inflationary Pressures
Garga, Vaishali; Olivei, Giovanni P.; Wang, J. Christina (2024-06-27)
Wage inflation remains higher than it was before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns that it could hinder progress toward a return of price inflation to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. The impact of wage inflation on price inflation, however, cannot be considered independently of the behavior of productivity and firms’ markups. In that context, there are scenarios in which wage inflation could stay above trend for a few more quarters without contributing to higher price inflation.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 2024-5

Working Paper
Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-05-07)
The COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about the future of work. The pandemic may become recurrent, necessitating repeated adoptions of social distancing measures (voluntary or mandatory), creating substantial uncertainty about worker productivity. But robots are not susceptible to the virus. Thus, pandemic-induced job uncertainty may boost the incentive for automation. However, elevated uncertainty also reduces aggregate demand and reduces the value of new investment in automation. We assess the importance of automation in driving business cycle dynamics following an increase in job ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-19

Discussion Paper
Endogenous Supply Chains, Productivity, and COVID-19
Azar, Pablo (2021-05-03)
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many industries adapted to new social distancing guidelines by adopting new technologies, providing protective equipment for their employees, and digitizing their methods of production. These changes in industries’ supply chains, together with monetary and fiscal stimulus, contributed to dampening the economic impact of COVID-19 over time. In this post, I discuss a new framework that analyzes how changes in supply chains can drive economic growth in the long run and mitigate recessions in the short run.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210503

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-08-25)
A slowdown in population growth causes a decline in business dynamism by increasing the share of old businesses. But how does it affect productivity growth? We answer this question by extending a standard firm dynamics model to include endogenous productivity growth. Theoretically, the growth rate of the size of surviving old businesses is a “sufficient statistic" for determining the direction and magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Quantitatively, this effect is significant across balanced growth paths for the United States and Japan. TFP growth in the United States ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Report
Human capital and economic activity in urban America
Gabe, Todd M.; Abel, Jaison R. (2008-07-01)
We examine the relationship between human capital and economic activity in U.S. metropolitan areas, extending the literature in two ways. First, we utilize new data on metropolitan area GDP to measure economic activity. Results show that a one-percentage-point increase in the proportion of residents with a college degree is associated with about a 2 percent increase in metropolitan area GDP per capita. Second, we develop measures of human capital that reflect the types of knowledge within U.S. metropolitan areas. Regional knowledge stocks related to the provision of producer services and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 332

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