Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis
Gourio, François; Messer, Todd; Siemer, Michael (2016-01-31)
Using an annual panel of U.S. states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real gross domestic product, productivity and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-1

Report
Agglomeration and job matching among college graduates
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2012-12-01)
We examine job matching as a potential source of urban agglomeration economies. Focusing on college graduates, we construct two direct measures of job matching based on how well an individual?s job corresponds to his or her college education. Consistent with matching-based theories of urban agglomeration, we find evidence that larger and thicker local labor markets increase both the likelihood and quality of a job match for college graduates. We then assess the extent to which better job matching of college-educated workers increases individual-level wages and thereby contributes to the urban ...
Staff Reports , Paper 587

Report
The Great Recession, entrepreneurship, and productivity performance
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-01)
In recent years, it is argued, the level of entrepreneurial activity in the United States has declined, causing concern because of its potential macroeconomic implications. In particular, it is feared that a lower rate of firm creation may be associated with lower productivity growth and, hence, lower economic growth in the coming years. This paper studies the issue, focusing on the dynamics of entrepreneurship and productivity around the time of the Great Recession. The author looks first at the recent evolution of alternative measures of entrepreneurship and of productivity, and then ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-8

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Inokuma, Hiroshi; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the growth rate of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Report
Nonlinear Firm Dynamics
Melcangi, Davide; Sarpietro, Silvia (2024-03-01)
This paper presents empirical evidence on the nature of idiosyncratic shocks to firms and discusses its role for firm behavior and aggregate fluctuations. We document that firm-level sales and productivity are hit by heavy-tailed shocks and follow a nonlinear stochastic process, thus departing from the canonical linear. We estimate a state-of-the-art model to flexibly capture the rich dynamics uncovered in the data and characterize the drivers of nonlinear persistence and non-Gaussian shocks. We show that these features are crucial to get empirically plausible volatility and persistence of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1088

Briefing
How Expectations About Future Productivity Drive Inventories
Lubik, Thomas A.; Gortz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher (2022-03)
To what extent do expectations about future productivity developments drive business cycles? This Economic Brief reviews the state of the literature and discusses how new research by the authors establishes a novel method to answer. We specifically focus on firms' inventories, which stock goods available for future sales. We find that these inventories expand strongly to news about future productivity developments. This confirms that expectations about future productivity are a powerful force behind aggregate fluctuations, a finding with important implications for widely used economic models.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 03

Working Paper
Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata
Monarch, Ryan; Park, Jooyoun; Sivadasan, Jagadeesh (2014-11-11)
We construct a new linked data set with over one thousand offshoring events by matching Trade Adjustment Assistance program petition data to confidential data on U.S. firm operations. We exploit these data to assess how offshoring affects domestic firm-level aggregate employment, output, wages and productivity. Consistent with heterogenous firm models where offshoring involves a fixed cost, we find that the average offshoring firm is larger and more productive than the average non-offshorer. After initiating offshoring, firms experience large declines in employment (46.2 per cent), output ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1124

How Lending Standards Change across the Business Cycle
Leukhina, Oksana (2024-10-25)
Standards and terms for business loans ease during economic expansions and tighten during recessions. An analysis looks at why, and how these fluctuations are linked to productivity.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel (2024-11-21)
Based on a narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in R&D appropriations for five major federal agencies, we find that an increase in nondefense R&D appropriations leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity and higher business-sector productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV methodology of Lewis and Mertens (2023) and obtain implied returns of 140 to 210 percent over the postwar period. The estimates indicate that government-funded R&D accounts for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2305

Journal Article
Price Stability Built to Last
Daly, Mary C. (2024-02-20)
The economy is healthy and price stability is within sight. But progress is not victory, and considerable uncertainty and risks remain. To finish the job will take fortitude and patience, along with the agility to respond as the economy evolves. The following is adapted from the keynote address by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the 40th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, DC, on February 16.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 01 , Pages 6

show more (2)

show more (76)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords