Search Results
Discussion Paper
The Impact of Tariffs on Our Region's Firms
Given recent changes in U.S. tariff policy, we asked Fifth District firms how they expected to be affected by tariff policy in March. At the time, 80 percent of respondent businesses expected to be impacted. In our May surveys, we checked in with firms and found that 72 percent of respondents made business changes in response to tariffs on imports. Firms reported taking a variety of actions. Of the firms that reported making adjustments, most have or plan to increase prices, 47 percent have canceled or delayed capital expenditures, and 41 percent have adjusted hiring plans.
Speech
The Evolution of Technological Disruption
The economy has seen a number of disinflationary innovations in recent years. These innovations put “the wind at our back” when it came to containing inflation.But we've been through quite a storm over the last two years, and it is appropriate to ask whether anything has changed and if the wind has shifted in a more inflationary direction.We’ve seen vulnerabilities associated with a globally complex supply chain, investments in renewable energy, and changing demographics that may shift labor from being abundant to being scarce, all of which could result in rising cost pressures.It’s ...
Speech
Rethinking the Office
Before the pandemic, the office was a core feature of modern life. It was prominent in the skyscraper architecture of downtowns, and in the professional attire sections of department stores. And it dominated popular culture, not only in the namesake TV show "The Office," but in the countless shows and movies centered around the workplace, from "The Mary Tyler Moore Show" to "The Devil Wears Prada."We have now had a two-year experiment with a different, home-based model. As we emerge from the pandemic era, some are abandoning offices altogether. Others are trying to make a full return to ...
Speech
The Future “Hybrid” Office
As the COVID-19 vaccine rolls out across the United States, it finally seems timely to think about the economy getting back to “normal.” But what will normal be in an office environment? The answer doesn’t just matter for individuals and companies—it has implications for our future labor force.Many workers who have been able to do their jobs from home feel they have been every bit as productive as they were in the office, with the added bonus of reduced commuting costs and less time away from family. (Many people, of course, have not been so fortunate as to work from home, as I ...
Speech
What’s Ahead? Learning From The CFO Survey
Firms are currently navigating extraordinary uncertainty. The decisions they make about hiring, spending and investment will have implications for GDP growth, employment and inflation.Business sentiment surveys like The CFO Survey help us understand those decisions.The latest survey shows that CFOs are feeling slightly more optimistic than they were last quarter, although they remain concerned about demand and revenue. Firms also remain cautious about investing.The survey also suggests that employment will lag spending. Many firms have streamlined their operations in response to the pandemic, ...
Speech
The Path to Full Recovery
The past two months have been painful across the country. We have lost lives. We have lost tens of millions of jobs. We have lost security, connectivity and community.Multiple states are now in the process of reopening their economies. But, despite unprecedented measures by both the Fed and fiscal authorities, things won’t be returning to normal quickly. As I wrote a few weeks ago, the pace will likely be slow, as businesses and consumers adapt to a world where personal interaction creates health risks.As the United States navigates the path to recovery, I have been focusing on how much ...
Speech
What Could Happen if We Keep Washing Our Hands?
The pandemic has changed us. It reminded us how precious time with family and work-life balance are. It threatened baby boomers’ health while expanding their 401k plans, perhaps driving the recent surge in retirements. It even allowed us to discover hidden talents, like baking or gardening, increasing the value we place in our leisure time. Many of these shifts could dampen future workforce participation and productivity. But one change, if it persists, could be a force in the opposite direction — a productivity booster. We saw a dramatic reduction in flu incidence.Flu season comes every ...
Speech
To Invest in Infrastructure, Invest in People
The new administration has signaled its intent to propose an infrastructure program. That is good. We need investment in our country’s infrastructure. Our roads and bridges are long overdue for repairs. We lag behind other countries in high-speed transit and the shift to renewable energy. We have far too many schools and hospitals that need updating. And too many students in small towns and inner cities have been set back by their lack of broadband, worsening the educational disparities that existed even before the COVID-19 pandemic.Supporters of a large infrastructure bill also point to ...
Briefing
Forecasting U.S. Productivity
Trend aggregate labor productivity and TFP growth are expected to increase over the rest of the decade.The three largest subsectors of the service economy — namely professional business services; finance, insurance and real estate; and education and health care — are expected to continue growing in the medium term, and their idiosyncratic productivity is expected to play an increasingly important role in aggregate productivity.
Journal Article
Features: South Carolina's Globalized Economy
A great deal of that wealth and growth — not just in Greenville, but across much of South Carolina — is the result of international trade, as these firms and others buy parts and supplies from abroad and sell many of their finished products on the international market. In 2024, for example, South Carolina exported $38 billion in goods, accounting for 11.6 percent of the Palmetto State's GDP. Manufactured products made up nearly all of that total ($37.2 billion). Foreign companies aren't the only active exporters: A total of 6,261 companies in the Palmetto State sent products abroad in ...