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Discussion Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Hyman, Benjamin (2025-03-05)
After a period of particularly high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years. Indeed, the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index has come down from a peak of 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. The New York Fed asked regional businesses about their own cost and price increases in February, as well as their expectations for future inflation. Service firms reported that business cost and selling price increases continued to moderate through 2024, while manufacturing firms ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250305

Newsletter
The ups and downs of commodity price indexes
Krueger, Joel; Eugeni, Francesca (1994-12)
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Dec

Working Paper
The impact of domestic market structure on exchange rate pass-through
Mohamed, Ahmed H. (1990)
Working Papers , Paper 90-25

Journal Article
Competitive pricing behavior in the U.S. steel industry
Israilevich, Philip R.; Erceg, Christopher J.; Schnorbus, Robert H. (1989-03)
Economic Perspectives , Volume 13 , Issue Mar

Journal Article
FOMC Communication Spillovers: Is There a "Call-Out" Effect?
Dilts Stedman, Karlye; Gulati, Chaitri (2023-02-09)
Foreign asset prices may react to FOMC communication that references specific countries, but the effects are minimal.
Economic Review , Volume vol.108 , Issue no.1 , Pages 15

Working Paper
Relative price volatility: what role does the border play?
Rogers, John H.; Engel, Charles (1998)
We reexamine the effect of the U.S.-Canadian border on integration of markets. The paper updates work from our earlier paper, Engel and Rogers (1996). We consider alternative measures of deviations from the law of one price. We pay special attention to the effect of the U.S.-Canada free trade agreement on market integration. Our conclusions are unchanged: markets in the U.S. and Canada are more segmented than can be explained by the physical distance between the two locations. Formal trade barriers do not appear to explain much of that segmentation.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 623

Working Paper
Magazine prices revisited
Willis, Jonathan L. (2001)
This paper examines price adjustment behavior in the magazine industry. In a frequently cited study, Cecchetti (1986) constructs a reduced-form (S,s) model for firms. Cecchetti assumes that a firm's pricing rules are fixed for non-overlapping three-year intervals and estimates the model using a conditional logit specification from Chamberlain (1980). The estimates are inconsistent, however, due to the state-dependent specification of the model. I illustrate the econometric problems in Cecchetti's results through a Monte Carlo exercise and then suggest a method for producing consistent ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 01-15

Report
Expectations of inflation: the biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Topa, Giorgio; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi (2011)
National surveys follow consumers' expectations of future inflation, because they may directly affect the economic choices they make, indirectly affect macroeconomic outcomes, and be considered in monetary policy. Yet relatively little is known about how individuals form the inflation expectations they report on consumer surveys. Medians of reported inflation expectations tend to track official estimates of realized inflation, but show large disagreement between respondents, due to some expecting seemingly extreme inflation. We present two studies to examine whether individuals who consider ...
Staff Reports , Paper 489

Working Paper
The Responses of Wages and Prices to Technology Shocks
Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas; Edge, Rochelle M. (2003-12-01)
This paper reexamines wage and price dynamics in response to permanent shocks to productivity. We estimate a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the U.S. economy with sticky wages and sticky prices using impulse responses to technology and monetary policy shocks. We utilize a flexible specification for wage- and price-setting that allows for the sluggish adjustment of both the levels of these variables as in standard contracting models as well as intrinsic inertia in wage and price inflation. On the price front, we find that in our VAR inflation jumps in response to an ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2003-21

Journal Article
U.S. inflation developments in 1996
Clark, Todd E. (1997-01)
The primary goal of Federal Reserve monetary policy is to foster maximum long-term growth in the U.S. economy by achieving price stability over time. Price stability will be achieved, according to some definitions, when inflation ceases to be a factor in the decision-making processes of businesses and individuals. Although the Federal Reserve has made considerable progress toward price stability since the early 1980s, inflation remains above the level most analysts would associate with price stability. Because stable prices are essential to maximum long-term economic growth and living ...
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 11-30

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