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Discussion Paper
Supply Chain Disruptions Have Eased, But Remain a Concern
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2024-05-20)
Supply chain disruptions became a major headache for businesses in the aftermath of the pandemic. Indeed, in October 2021, nearly all firms in our regional business surveys reported at least some difficulty obtaining the supplies they needed. These supply chain disruptions were a key contributor to the surge in inflation that occurred as the economy recovered from the pandemic recession. In this post, we present new measures of supply availability from our Business Leaders Survey and Empire State Manufacturing Survey that closely track the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240520

Discussion Paper
February Regional Business Surveys Find Widespread Supply Disruptions
Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2021-02-17)
Business activity increased in the region’s manufacturing sector in recent weeks but continued to decline in the region’s service sector, continuing a divergent trend seen over the past several months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s February regional business surveys. Looking ahead, however, businesses expressed widespread optimism about the near-term outlook, with service firms increasingly confident that the business climate will be better in six months. The surveys also found that supply disruptions were widespread, with manufacturing firms reporting longer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210217a

Speech
Good Day Sunshine
Williams, John C. (2021-06-21)
Remarks at Midsize Bank Coalition of America (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Credit Supply, Prices, and Non-price Mechanisms in the Mortgage Market
Mondragon, John (2024-08-12)
I use an episode of relatively tight credit supply in the jumbo mortgage market to quantify the importance of price and non-price credit supply mechanisms in explaining changes in borrowing. Following market disruptions in March 2020, borrowers with jumbo loans saw significantly tighter credit supply conditions relative to borrowers with conforming loans. As a result, jumbo borrowers were 50 percent less likely to refinance and when they refinanced they borrowed 4-6 percent less than counterfactual borrowers facing looser credit conditions. The reduction in borrowing may have been caused by ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024

Discussion Paper
The Impact of Import Tariffs on U.S. Domestic Prices
Heise, Sebastian; Kwicklis, Noah; Amiti, Mary (2019-01-04)
The United States imposed new import tariffs on about $283 billion of U.S. imports in 2018, with rates ranging between 10 percent and 50 percent. In this post, we estimate the effect of these tariffs on the prices paid by U.S. producers and consumers. We find that the higher import tariffs had immediate impacts on U.S. domestic prices. Our results suggest that the aggregate consumer price index (CPI) is 0.3 percent higher than it would have been without the tariffs.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190104

Report
Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data
Dogra, Keshav; Heise, Sebastian; Knotek, Edward S.; Meyer, Brent; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; dup Bruine de Bruin, Wandi (2023-06-01)
We examine businesses’ price-setting practices via open-ended interviews and in a quantitative survey module with business contacts from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York in December 2022 and January 2023. Businesses indicated that their prices were strongly influenced by demand, a desire to maintain steady profit margins, and wages and labor costs. Survey respondents expected reduced growth in costs and prices of about 5 percent on average over the next year. Backward-looking, forward-looking, and hypothetical scenarios reveal average cost-price passthrough of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1062

Journal Article
What Is Behind the Rise in Markups?
Marto, Ricardo (2024-07-17)
Markups increased noticeably over the past 70 years in the U.S. But what’s behind this increase?
Economic Synopses , Issue 14 , Pages 2 pages

Journal Article
Crude oil export ban benefits some … but not all
Plante, Michael D. (2014-07)
Lifting the U.S. ban on crude oil exports would alleviate a growing glut of oil at the Gulf Coast refineries and should eventually reduce retail gasoline and diesel prices, benefiting U.S. consumers.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-4

Measuring Inflation: Headline, Core and “Supercore” Services
Neely, Christopher J. (2024-05-03)
Inflation measures like CPI and PCEPI and their variations of headline, core and supercore differ in the prices they cover and in the weighting of price categories.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation
Braun, R. Anton (2022-10-06)
Prior to the COVID pandemic, industrialized countries experienced a sustained episode of low inflation, low real interest rates, and low per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As the logistical and other disruptions created by the COVID pandemic fade, will industrialized economies once again face downward pressure on prices, real interest rates, and output growth? We present evidence that the aging of the population was depressing the inflation rate, as well as real interest rates and GDP growth, prior to the COVID pandemic. Aging is ongoing in industrialized countries, and it will ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 13

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