Journal Article
Wage Growth, Labor Market Tightness, and Inflation: A Service Sector Analysis
Hajdini, Ina (2024-08-26)
This Economic Commentary explores the connections among labor market tightness, wage inflation, and price inflation at the service sector level. Across most service sectors, sector-specific labor market tightness and nominal wage growth have been above prepandemic averages since 2022. The data suggest that a stronger positive relationship between labor market tightness and wage growth has emerged in the aftermath of the pandemic. The relationship between sector-specific wage growth and inflation is more varied. In the education and health services sector, higher wage growth is associated with ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2024 , Issue 15 , Pages 9

Journal Article
Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
Jordà, Òscar; Liu, Celeste; Nechio, Fernanda; Rivera-Reyes, Fabián (2022-09-06)
In a tight labor market, workers are able to respond to price increases by bargaining for higher wages. Analyzing conditions since the pandemic shows that, in the recent environment of elevated inflation and low unemployment, wages have become much more sensitive to expected price inflation than in the past. The impact of inflation expectations on wages also appears to have become longer lasting.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 25 , Pages 6

Working Paper
The Role of Wages in Trend Inflation: Back to the 1980s?
Kiley, Michael T. (2023-04-17)
This paper examines whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using wage data in a dynamic factor model of disaggregated prices and wages for the United States. The model features time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. An estimate of trend inflation is a time-varying distributed lag of prices and wages, where the weight on a series depends on its time-varying volatility, persistence, and comovement with other series. The results show that wages inform estimates of trend inflation. The weight on wages was highest around 1980, drifted down through the 2000s, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-022

Speech
Wage Dynamics: Theory, Data, and Policy
Daly, Mary C. (2021-05-21)
Slides presented virtually at the National Bureau of Economic Research Spring 2021 Wage Dynamics in the 21st Century Conference, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May 21, 2021
Speech

Speech
Panel remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia
Dudley, William (2016-07-31)
Remarks at Bank Indonesia?Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia.
Speech , Paper 213