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Working Paper
How Climate Change Shapes Bank Lending: Evidence from Portfolio Reallocation
I document how bank lending has changed in response to climate change by analyzing changes in bank loan portfolios since 2012. Using supervisory data providing loan-level portfolios of the largest U.S. banks, I find that banks significantly reduced lending to areas more impacted by climate change starting around 2015. Using flood risk and wildfire risk as proxies for climate risk, I estimate a one standard deviation increase in climate risk reduces county-level balances in banks’ portfolios by up to 4.7 percent between 2014 and 2020 in counties with large loan balances. The aggregate trend ...
Working Paper
Risk-on/Risk-off: Measuring Shifts in Investor Sentiment
A new, high frequency measure of investor sentiment outperforms similar measures in forecasting investment activity in emerging markets.