Search Results
Journal Article
The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World
This article provides an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock. In 2020, it severely impacted output growth and employment, particularly in middle-income countries. Governments responded primarily by increasing expenditure, supported by an expansion of the supply of money and debt. These policies did not put upward pressure on prices until 2021. International trade was severely disrupted across all regions in 2020 but subsequently recovered. For 2021, we find that the adverse effects of the COVID-19 shock on output and prices were significant and persistent, ...
Report
The Real Effects of Household Debt in the Short and Long Run
Household debt levels relative to GDP have risen rapidly in many countries over the past decade. We investigate the macroeconomic impact of household debt by employing a novel estimation technique proposed by Chudik et al (2016), which tackles the problem of endogeneity in traditional panel regressions. Using data for 54 economies over 1990‒2016, we show that household debt boosts GDP growth in the short run, mostly within one year. By contrast, a 1 percentage point increase in the household debt-to-GDP ratio tends to lower GDP growth in the long run by 0.1 percentage point. Moreover, the ...
Working Paper
Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR
The paper contributes to the growing Global VAR (GVAR) literature by showing how global and national shocks can be identified within a GVAR framework. The usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of the interactions between public debt and real output growth in a multi-country setting, and the results are compared to those obtained from standard single-country VAR analysis. We find that on average (across countries) global shocks explain about one-third of the long-horizon forecast error variance of output growth, and about one-fifth of the long-run ...
Speech
Panel remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia
Remarks at Bank Indonesia?Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia.