Search Results
Working Paper
Optimal Short-Time Work Policy in Recessions
Short-time work (STW) is a subsidy program linked to a reduction in working hours that has been widely used across Europe and partly used in some US states to combat job losses in the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. Although typically used alongside an unemployment insurance (UI) system, the interaction between STW and UI remains conceptually unclear. To close this gap in the literature, I develop a search and matching model of the labor market with risk-averse workers, flexible hours choice, endogenous separations, and generalized Nash bargaining. Deriving closed-form expressions ...
Working Paper
Carrots or Sticks? Short-Time Work vs. Layoff Taxes
While unemployment insurance systems are widely used to insure workers against income losses after separations, it is well known that they can inefficiently increase separations in the labor market. There are two distinct policy instruments commonly used by governments that can counter this known problem: layoff taxes and short-time work schemes. This study provides a search-and-matching model to evaluate which of the two is the better policy tool. We show that if only a few firms are financially constrained, layoff taxes are better because they do not distort working hours in the economy. ...
Working Paper
Pollution Taxes and Clean Subsidies in an Open Economy
In open economies, the effectiveness of carbon taxes is diminished by “pollution leakage,” where some polluting activity shifts abroad because of the tax. This paper shows that the same conditions that lead to pollution leakage enhance the efficacy of clean subsidies. As a result, the optimal policy in an open economy combines a pollution tax and a clean subsidy, the balance of which depends on the leakage rate. Furthermore, efficient policy sets the sum of the tax and subsidy rates, a measure of policy ambition, equal to the marginal damages from pollution, and does not depend on the ...
Working Paper
Optimal Foreign Reserve Intervention and Financial Development
We document evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange (FX) reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase. Countries with intermediate levels of financial development sell reserves aggressively, while those with low or high levels adjust little. A model with borrowing constraints and foreign-currency debt rationalizes these findings. Optimal FX reserve policy faces a tradeoff between the rate of return on capital outflows and a pecuniary externality linked to foreign currency debt in the borrowing constraints. This ...
Working Paper
Optimal Foreign Reserve Intervention and Financial Development
We document evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange (FX) reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase. Countries with intermediate levels of financial development sell reserves aggressively, while those with low or high development adjust little. Domestic interest rate responses are not systematically related to financial development. A model with borrowing constraints and foreign-currency debt rationalizes these findings: the associated pecuniary externality is maximized at intermediate levels of financial ...
Working Paper
Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches
An economy that switches between high and low growth regimes creates incentives for the monetary authority to change its rule. As lower growth tends to produce lower real interest rates, the monetary authority has an incentive to increase the inflation target and increase the degree of inertia in setting rates in an attempt to keep the nominal rate away from the zero lower bound. An optimizing monetary authority therefore responds to permanently lower growth by slightly increasing both the inflation target and inertia; focusing solely on the inflation target ignores a key margin of ...
Working Paper
A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation
The evaluation of macroeconomic policy decisions has traditionally relied on the formulation of a specific economic model. In this work, we show that two statistics are sufficient to detect, often even correct, non-optimal policies, i.e., policies that do not minimize the loss function. The two sufficient statistics are (i) the effects of policy shocks on the policy objectives, and (ii) forecasts for the policy objectives conditional on the policy decision. Both statistics can be estimated without relying on a specific model. We illustrate the method by studying US monetary policy decisions.
Working Paper
Optimal Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound: A Non-Ricardian Analysis
This paper analyzes the implications of distortionary taxation and debt financing for optimal government spending policy in a sticky-price economy where the nominal interest rate is subject to the zero lower bound constraint. Regardless of the type of tax available and the initial debt level, optimal government spending policy in a recession is characterized by an initial increase followed by a reduction below, and an eventual return to, the steady state. The magnitude of variations in the government spending as well as their welfare implications depend importantly on the available tax ...
Working Paper
Optimal Asset Market Operations
We provide a unifying theory of how governments should trade assets in response to economic disturbances. Across a broad class of models with financial frictions, the first-order Ramsey plan is characterized by a target relationship among asset returns. The relationship is determined by empirically measurable asset demand and supply elasticities and can be implemented without having to identify the underlying frictions or disturbances. Due to financial frictions, optimal policy may preserve or widen spreads between returns to steer intermediation; absent this concern, the target stabilizes ...
Discussion Paper
Designing Bank Regulation with Accounting Discretion
Why does the banking industry remain prone to large and costly disruptions despite being so heavily regulated? Is there a need for more regulation, less regulation, or simply different regulation? Our recent Staff Report combines insights from academic research in economics, finance, and accounting to provide a deeper understanding of the challenges involved in designing and implementing bank regulation, as well as opportunities for future exploration. This post focuses on the regulation of bank capital, but the ideas are applicable more broadly.