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Journal Article
Higher Oil Prices Will Likely Increase Severance Tax Revenues in Rocky Mountain States
The Iran conflict that began in February triggered a historically large energy market disruption, leading to a substantial increase in oil prices. Although higher oil prices may present challenges for households and businesses, Rocky Mountain states’ budgets—especially Wyoming and New Mexico—stand to gain from additional severance tax revenue related to elevated oil prices.
Discussion Paper
Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity
After a period of stability, oil prices started to decline in mid-2015, and this downward trend continued into early 2016. As we noted in an earlier post, it is important to assess whether these price declines reflect demand shocks or supply shocks, since the two types of shocks have different implications for the U.S. economic outlook. In this post, we again use correlations of weekly oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to quantify the drivers of oil price movements, finding that the decline since mid-2015 is due to a mix of weaker demand and increased supply. Given ...
Journal Article
Employment Fluctuations and the World Oil Market
Petroleum is a critical input in modern economies, but how do oil supply shocks impact real economic activity and employment?
Discussion Paper
Is Cheaper Oil Good News or Bad News for U.S. Economy?
Oil prices have declined substantially since the summer of 2014. If these price declines reflect demand shocks, then this would suggest a slowdown in global economic activity. Alternatively, if the declines are driven by supply shocks, then the drop in prices might indicate a forthcoming boost in spending as firms and households benefit from lower energy costs. In this post, we use correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to confirm that this recent fall in oil prices has been mostly the result of increased global oil supply. We then use a model to assess ...