Search Results
Speech
The national and regional economy
Remarks at the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, Newark, New Jersey.
Working Paper
What the Iran War Teaches Us about the Price Elasticity of Oil Supply
We draw on evidence from the 2026 Iran War to assess the validity of estimates of the short-run price elasticity of oil supply reported in the literature. Our analysis confirms that the one-month and one-quarter U.S. oil supply elasticity is effectively zero, consistent with estimates in Newell and Prest (2019). The data strongly reject the much higher elasticity estimates reported by more recent studies. This finding is consistent with evidence from surveys of oil company executives and with industry data about how long it takes to complete a well and start pumping oil. It is also consistent ...
Working Paper
Resource Curse or Blessing? Sovereign Risk in Resource-Rich Emerging Economies
In this paper we document the stylized facts about the relationship between international oil price swings, sovereign risk and macroeconomic performance of oil-exporting economies. We show that even though being a bigger oil producer decreases sovereign risk?because it increases a country?s ability to repay?having more oil reserves increases sovereign risk by making autarky more attractive. We develop a small open economy model of sovereign risk with incomplete international financial markets, in which optimal oil extraction and sovereign default interact. We use the model to understand the ...
Journal Article
Drilling Productivity in the United States: What Lies Beneath
We construct new measures of drilling productivity and find that productivity increased sixfold from the mid-2000s to early 2017. Gains in below-ground efficiency?the number of barrels produced per foot of drilled wells?have largely driven this increase in overall productivity. The large oil price declines during the Great Recession and from 2014 to 2016 also played a role. However, further large increases in productivity are unlikely absent additional improvements in technology or a subsequent large downturn in oil prices.
Journal Article
What could lower prices mean for U.S. oil production?
Melek estimates the effects of the recent oil price decline on 2015 oil production.
Journal Article
Navigating Energy Booms and Busts
Cover Story on: Navigating Energy Booms and Busts: The fracking revolution has created new job opportunities, but are workers prepared for the fluctuations of the energy economy?
Journal Article
What could lower prices mean for U.S. oil production?
U.S. oil and natural gas production has grown significantly since 2005, reflecting a move toward shale gas and tight oil extraction. Since 2011, the most productive tight oil and shale gas fields accounted for nearly all of the growth in U.S. energy production, due largely to extensive use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. High energy prices made these costly technologies profitable to apply on a large scale. However, oil prices and rig counts declined sharply in 2014, calling into question whether the boom in U.S. oil production can continue. Nida ak?r Melek examines how ...
Working Paper
What the Iran War Teaches Us about the Price Elasticity of Oil Supply
We draw on evidence from the 2026 Iran War to assess the validity of estimates of the short-run price elasticity of oil supply reported in the literature. Our analysis confirms that the one-month and one-quarter U.S. oil supply elasticity is effectively zero, consistent with estimates in Newell and Prest (2019). The data strongly reject the much higher elasticity estimates reported by more recent studies. This finding is consistent with evidence from surveys of oil company executives and with industry data about how long it takes to complete a well and start pumping oil. It is also consistent ...