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Journal Article
Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks
Mertens, Thomas M.; Wasserburger, Wesley (2026-08-10)
The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond correlation recently flipped, suggesting that the perceived source of risk to the economy has shifted towards supply shocks. Other financial correlations, such as the stock-oil correlation, also changed accordingly and thus agree with this interpretation. In line with this evidence, financial market pricing now indicates that elevated oil prices and potential inflation are prominent sources of ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2026 , Issue 21 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area
Hubrich, Kirstin; Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric (2017-06)
We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a regime-switching vector autoregressive model we identify two regimes that are characterized by qualitatively different patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price shocks trigger only limited and short-lived adjustments in these variables. In the 'adverse regime', by contrast, oil price shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-063

Journal Article
The response of employment to changes in oil and gas exploration and drilling
Brown, Jason (2015-04)
Oil prices declined significantly during the summer of 2014, leading to a subsequent decline in energy exploration and drilling. By the end of April 2015, rig counts were down 49 percent. In the past, these declines have disproportionately affected the economies of oil- and gas-producing states, decreasing statewide employment and inducing ?regional recessions.?
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 57-81

Working Paper
Fuel subsidies, the oil market and the world economy
Plante, Michael D.; Balke, Nathan S.; Yücel, Mine K. (2014-08-01)
This paper studies the e ffects of oil producing countries' fuel subsidies on the oil market and the world economy. We identify 24 oil producing countries with fuel subsidies where retail fuel prices are about 34 percent of the world price. We construct a two-country model where one country represents the oil-exporting subsidizers and the second the oil-importing bloc, and calibrate the model to match recent data. We find that the removal of subsidies would reduce the world price of oil by six percent. The removal of subsidies is unambiguously welfare enhancing for the oil-importing ...
Working Papers , Paper 1407

Discussion Paper
Why Did the Recent Oil Price Declines Affect Bond Prices of Non-Energy Companies?
Li, Brandon; Sarkar, Asani (2016-10-05)
Oil prices plunged 65 percent between July 2014 and December of the following year. During this period, the yield spread?the yield of a corporate bond minus the yield of a Treasury bond of the same maturity?of energy companies shot up, indicating increased credit risk. Surprisingly, the yield spread of non?energy firms also rose even though many non?energy firms might be expected to benefit from lower energy?related costs. In this blog post, we examine this counterintuitive result. We find evidence of a liquidity spillover, whereby the bonds of more liquid non?energy firms had to be sold to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161005

Discussion Paper
Putting the Current Oil Price Collapse into Historical Perspective
Groen, Jan J. J.; Nattinger, Michael (2020-05-14)
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in late January, oil prices have fallen sharply. In this post, we compare recent price declines with those seen in previous oil price collapses, focusing on the drivers of such episodes. In order to do that, we break oil price shocks down into demand and supply components, applying the methodology behind the New York Fed’s weekly Oil Price Dynamics Report.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200514

Journal Article
Oil Shocks when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound
Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan; Sergeyev, Dmitry (2022-11-30)
New evidence suggests that rising oil prices associated with declining oil supply slow economic activities less when interest rates are constrained at the zero lower bound. Moreover, these oil price spikes can even increase overall output. Evidence points to the following explanation. An oil supply shock raises inflation in all periods, but the nominal interest rate does not react under the zero lower bound, so the shock reduces the real interest rate, stimulating demand in the economy.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 34 , Pages 5

Discussion Paper
A New Approach for Identifying Demand and Supply Shocks in the Oil Market
Middeldorp, Menno; McNeil, Kevin; Groen, Jan J. J. (2013-03-25)
An oil-price spike is often used as the textbook example of a supply shock. However, rapidly rising oil prices can also reflect a demand shock. Recognizing the difference is important for central bankers. A supply-driven increase in the price of oil can result in higher unemployment and inflation, leaving central bankers with the difficult decision to loosen policy, tighten policy, or not respond at all. A demand-driven increase reflecting global growth may support the case for tighter policy. In this post, we describe an approach for decomposing oil price changes into supply and demand ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130325

Journal Article
Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations: Is There a Link?
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Badel, Alejandro (2015-07)
Oil prices and inflation expectations sometimes move in tandem. A close look at three types of shocks to oil prices suggests that not all shocks relate to inflation expectations in the same manner.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Working Paper
Forecasts of inflation and interest rates in no-arbitrage affine models
Gospodinov, Nikolay; Wei, Bin (2016-02-01)
In this paper, we examine the forecasting ability of an affine term structure framework that jointly models the markets for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no-arbitrage restrictions across these markets. On the methodological side, we propose a novel way of incorporating information from these markets into an affine model. On the empirical side, two main findings emerge from our analysis. First, incorporating information from inflation options can often produce more accurate inflation forecasts than those based on the Survey of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2016-3

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