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Discussion Paper
The Disconnect between Productivity and Profits in U.S. Oil and Gas Extraction
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2022-08-17)
U.S. oil and gas production boomed during the years leading up to the pandemic. From 2011 to 2019, oil production more than doubled and dry natural gas production rose by more than half. Remarkably, these gains occurred despite lackluster investment spending and hiring. Instead, higher production came largely from productivity gains, via wider adoption of fracking technologies. More recently, production recovered sluggishly from the pandemic downturn despite a quick recovery in prices. Our analysis in this post suggests that slower productivity growth and investors’ demand for higher ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220817

Hormuz closure offsets tariff reversal; U.S. left with upside inflation risk
Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo M.; Aanenson, Tryg (2026-06-02)
A pair of important and opposing trade shocks hit the U.S. economy during the first quarter of 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a portion of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision on Feb. 20 lowered average U.S. import tariffs by roughly 4.8 percentage points.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations
Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael D.; Richter, Alexander W. (2026-03-02)
Market participants and policymakers are concerned about major oil production shortfalls driven by geopolitical events. Even when such events never materialize, unanticipated increases in the probability of a production shortfall may generate a surge in the price of oil and oil price uncertainty. We provide the first systematic account of the quantitative importance of time-varying geopolitical risk to oil production for the global economy. We show that a 20 percentage point increase in the probability of a 5% shortfall in oil production causes a 0.12% reduction in output. When considering a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2403

Journal Article
The response of employment to changes in oil and gas exploration and drilling
Brown, Jason (2015-04)
Oil prices declined significantly during the summer of 2014, leading to a subsequent decline in energy exploration and drilling. By the end of April 2015, rig counts were down 49 percent. In the past, these declines have disproportionately affected the economies of oil- and gas-producing states, decreasing statewide employment and inducing ?regional recessions.?
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 57-81

Working Paper
Financial market reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Neely, Christopher J. (2022-09-08)
This article analyzes financial market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war with a focus on the opening weeks. Markets did not completely anticipate the war and asset price reactions strengthened from the first week—when there were hopes for a quick resolution—to the second week, when prices generally peaked and began to partially revert to pre-war values. Exposure to commodity trade and trade with Russia-Ukraine determined market perceptions of the riskiness of equity and foreign exchange assets. Credit default swap prices on sovereign debt and breakeven inflation rates indicate that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-032

Journal Article
Oil Shocks when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound
Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan; Sergeyev, Dmitry (2022-11-30)
New evidence suggests that rising oil prices associated with declining oil supply slow economic activities less when interest rates are constrained at the zero lower bound. Moreover, these oil price spikes can even increase overall output. Evidence points to the following explanation. An oil supply shock raises inflation in all periods, but the nominal interest rate does not react under the zero lower bound, so the shock reduces the real interest rate, stimulating demand in the economy.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 34 , Pages 5

What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy
Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael D.; Richter, Alexander W. (2026-03-20)
The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Generating Options-Implied Probability Densities to Understand Oil Market Events
Londono, Juan M.; Datta, Deepa Dhume; Ross, Landon J. (2014-10-29)
We investigate the informational content of options-implied probability density functions (PDFs) for the future price of oil. Using a semiparametric variant of the methodology in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978), we investigate the fit and smoothness of distributions derived from alternative PDF estimation methods, and develop a set of robust summary statistics. Using PDFs estimated around episodes of high geopolitical tensions, oil supply disruptions, and macroeconomic data releases, we explore the extent to which oil price movements are expected or unexpected, and whether agents believe ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1122

Low oil prices, local impact: Do depressed energy markets affect banks?
Byun, Sung Je; Klemme, Kelly (2025-08-07)
Oil prices have swung dramatically in recent years, shaped by geopolitical conflicts, evolving global demand and shifting energy policies.
Dallas Fed Banking

Working Paper
Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts
Brown, Jason (2017-05-01)
This paper investigates how consumers respond to local income shocks as a result of booms and busts in oil and gas development. Oil and gas development generates potentially large streams of income via wages and salaries to workers and royalty income to mineral rights owners. Changes in development may lead consumers to increase their spending depending on their exposure to income shocks. Using quarterly information on consumer debt and oil and gas activity, I ?nd that consumer debt increased at a peak of $840 per capita in counties with shale endowment and increased drilling. Each well ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-05

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