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Discussion Paper
Will Peak Demand Roil Global Oil Markets?
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2025-04-14)
“Peak oil”—the notion that the depletion of accessible petroleum deposits would soon lead to declining global oil output and an upward trend in prices—was widely debated in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Proponents of the peak supply thesis turned out to be wrong, given the introduction of fracking and other new extraction methods. Now the notion of peak oil is back, but in reverse form, with global demand set to flatten and then fade amid growing use of EVs and other low-carbon technologies. The arrival of “peak demand” would turn global oil markets into a zero-sum game: Supply ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250414

Journal Article
Lifting the U.S. Crude Oil Export Ban: Prospects for Increasing Oil Market Efficiency
Cakir Melek, Nida; Ojeda, Elena (2017-04)
Repealing the U.S. ban on crude oil exports led to increased trade and efficiency in the oil market.
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 51-74

Discussion Paper
Are Banks Being Roiled by Oil?
Vickery, James; Thomas, Lauren; Velasquez, Ulysses (2016-10-24)
Profits and employment in the oil and natural gas extraction industry have fallen significantly since 2014, reflecting a sustained decline in energy prices. In this post, we look at how these tremors are affecting banks that operate in energy industry?intensive regions of the United States. We find that banks in the ?oil patch? have experienced a significant rise in delinquencies on commercial and industrial loans. So far though, there appears to be limited evidence of spillovers to other types of loans and no evidence of widespread bank losses or failures in these regions.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161024

Working Paper
The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida
Plante, Michael D.; Cakir Melek, Nida; Yücel, Mine K. (2017-09-01)
This paper examines the e ects of the U.S. shale oil boom in a two-country DSGE model where countries produce crude oil, re ned oil products, and a non-oil good. The model in- {{p}} corporates di erent types of crude oil that are imperfect substitutes for each other as inputs into the re ning sector. The model is calibrated to match oil market and macroeconomic data for the U.S. and the rest of the world (ROW). {{p}} We investigate the implications of a signicant {{p}} increase in U.S. light crude oil production similar to the shale oil boom. Consistent with the data, our model predicts that ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-10

Journal Article
Oil Shocks when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound
Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan; Sergeyev, Dmitry (2022-11-30)
New evidence suggests that rising oil prices associated with declining oil supply slow economic activities less when interest rates are constrained at the zero lower bound. Moreover, these oil price spikes can even increase overall output. Evidence points to the following explanation. An oil supply shock raises inflation in all periods, but the nominal interest rate does not react under the zero lower bound, so the shock reduces the real interest rate, stimulating demand in the economy.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 34 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks
Klepacz, Matthew (2021-04-30)
How do changes in aggregate volatility alter the impulse response of output to monetary policy? To analyze this question, I study whether individual prices in Producer Price Index micro data are more likely to change and to move in the same direction when aggregate volatility is high, which would increase aggregate price exibility and reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy. Taking advantage of plausibly exogenous oil price volatility shocks and heterogeneity in oil usage across industries, I find that price changes are more dispersed and less frequent, implying that prices are less ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1316

Journal Article
Why Have a Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
Neely, Christopher J. (2024-03-20)
Calculating the effect of the recent drawdowns from the U.S. SPR is complex and raises the question of what purpose the SPR serves under current conditions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 5 , Pages 3 pages

Journal Article
Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility
Tuzemen, Didem; Smith, Andrew Lee; Nie, Jun; Davig, Troy; Çakır Melek, Nida (2015-07)
Troy Davig, Nida Cakir Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tuzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 5-30

Working Paper
Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound
Datta, Deepa Dhume; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Kwon, Hannah; Vigfusson, Robert J. (2018-08-17)
From late 2008 to 2017, oil and equity returns were more positively correlated than in other periods. In addition, we show that both oil and equity returns became more responsive to macroeconomic news. We provide empirical evidence and theoretical justification that these changes resulted from nominal interest rates being constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). Although the ZLB alters the economic environment in theory, supportive empirical evidence has been lacking. Our paper provides clear evidence of the ZLB altering the economic environment, with implications for the effectiveness of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-058

Working Paper
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations
Richter, Alexander W.; Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael D. (2024-11-12)
This paper studies the general equilibrium effects of time-varying geopolitical risk in the oil market by simultaneously modeling downside risk from disasters, oil storage and the endogenous determination of oil price and macroeconomic uncertainty in the global economy. Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations. Even when allowing for the possibility of an unprecedented 20 percent drop in global oil production, it takes a large increase in the probability ...
Working Papers , Paper 2403

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