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Working Paper
Capturing rents from natural resource abundance: private royalties from U.S. onshore oil and gas production
Brown, Jason; Weber, Jeremy G.; Fitzgerald, Timothy (2015-06-01)
Innovation-spurred growth in oil and gas production from shale formations led the U.S. to become the global leader in producing oil and natural gas. Because most shale is on private lands, drilling companies must access the resource through private lease contracts that provide a share of the value of production ? a royalty ? to mineral owners. We investigate the competitiveness of leasing markets by estimating how much mineral owners capture geologically-driven advantages in well productivity through a higher royalty rate. We estimate that the six major shale plays generated $39 billion in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-4

Working Paper
The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices
Kilian, Lutz; Rapson, David; Schipper, Burkhard (2024-03-26)
This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals crude in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted much of its crude oil exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power. We also ...
Working Papers , Paper 2401

Working Paper
Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts
Brown, Jason (2018-03-02)
Local shocks in oil and gas development may lead consumers to increase their spending. Using quarterly information on consumer debt and oil and gas activity between 2000 and 2016, I ﬁnd that consumer debt increased at a peak of $840 per capita, equivalent to 1.7 percent of median household income in counties with shale endowment and increased drilling. Shocks to local wages via drilling revealed a marginal propensity to consume from debt of 0.45. Relative to areas with oil and gas development experience, the marginal propensity to consume was 70 percent larger in previously undeveloped ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-05

Working Paper
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations
Richter, Alexander W.; Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael D. (2024-11-12)
This paper studies the general equilibrium effects of time-varying geopolitical risk in the oil market by simultaneously modeling downside risk from disasters, oil storage and the endogenous determination of oil price and macroeconomic uncertainty in the global economy. Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations. Even when allowing for the possibility of an unprecedented 20 percent drop in global oil production, it takes a large increase in the probability ...
Working Papers , Paper 2403

Discussion Paper
Will Peak Demand Roil Global Oil Markets?
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2025-04-14)
“Peak oil”—the notion that the depletion of accessible petroleum deposits would soon lead to declining global oil output and an upward trend in prices—was widely debated in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Proponents of the peak supply thesis turned out to be wrong, given the introduction of fracking and other new extraction methods. Now the notion of peak oil is back, but in reverse form, with global demand set to flatten and then fade amid growing use of EVs and other low-carbon technologies. The arrival of “peak demand” would turn global oil markets into a zero-sum game: Supply ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250414

Journal Article
Why Have a Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
Neely, Christopher J. (2024-03-20)
Calculating the effect of the recent drawdowns from the U.S. SPR is complex and raises the question of what purpose the SPR serves under current conditions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 5 , Pages 3 pages

Discussion Paper
Recycling Oil Revenue
Klitgaard, Thomas; Fosco, Michael (2018-05-14)
Almost half the U.S. merchandise trade deficit was tied to petroleum ten years ago. Oil prices were above $100 a barrel, the economy was doing well enough that oil consumption was growing despite high oil prices, and domestic oil production was falling. The U.S. petroleum trade balance has since narrowed substantially from $400 billion in 2008 to under $65 billion in 2017 as a result of lower oil prices, higher domestic production, and a prolonged period of flat-to-falling petroleum consumption. Going forward, the changes in domestic production and consumption have significantly moderated the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180514

Working Paper
Financial market reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Neely, Christopher J. (2022-09-08)
This article analyzes financial market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war with a focus on the opening weeks. Markets did not completely anticipate the war and asset price reactions strengthened from the first week—when there were hopes for a quick resolution—to the second week, when prices generally peaked and began to partially revert to pre-war values. Exposure to commodity trade and trade with Russia-Ukraine determined market perceptions of the riskiness of equity and foreign exchange assets. Credit default swap prices on sovereign debt and breakeven inflation rates indicate that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-032

Working Paper
Asset Ownership, Windfalls, and Income: Evidence from Oil and Gas Royalties
Brown, Jason; Weber, Jeremy G.; Fitzgerald, Timothy (2016-12-08)
How does local versus absentee ownership of natural resources?and their associated income?shape the relationship between extraction and local income? Theory and empirics on natural resources and the broader economy have focused heavily on labor markets, largely ignoring the economic implications of payments to resource owners. We study how local ownership of oil and gas rights shapes the local income effects of extraction. For the average U.S. county that experienced an increase in oil and gas production from 2000 to 2013, increased royalty income and its associated economic stimulus ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-12

Discussion Paper
W(h)ither U.S. Crude Oil Production?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2020-05-04)
People across the world have cut back sharply on travel due to the Covid-19 pandemic, working from home and cancelling vacations and other nonessential travel. Industrial activity is also off sharply. These forces are translating into an unprecedented collapse in global oil demand. The nature of the decline means that demand is unlikely to respond to the steep drop in oil prices, so supply will have to fall in tandem. The rapid increase in U.S. oil production of recent years was already looking difficult to sustain before the pandemic, as evidenced by the limited profitability of the sector. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200504

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