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Working Paper
Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound
Kwon, Hannah; Datta, Deepa Dhume; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Vigfusson, Robert J. (2018-08-17)
From late 2008 to 2017, oil and equity returns were more positively correlated than in other periods. In addition, we show that both oil and equity returns became more responsive to macroeconomic news. We provide empirical evidence and theoretical justification that these changes resulted from nominal interest rates being constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). Although the ZLB alters the economic environment in theory, supportive empirical evidence has been lacking. Our paper provides clear evidence of the ZLB altering the economic environment, with implications for the effectiveness of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-058

Working Paper
Capturing rents from natural resource abundance: private royalties from U.S. onshore oil and gas production
Brown, Jason; Weber, Jeremy G.; Fitzgerald, Timothy (2015-06-01)
Innovation-spurred growth in oil and gas production from shale formations led the U.S. to become the global leader in producing oil and natural gas. Because most shale is on private lands, drilling companies must access the resource through private lease contracts that provide a share of the value of production ? a royalty ? to mineral owners. We investigate the competitiveness of leasing markets by estimating how much mineral owners capture geologically-driven advantages in well productivity through a higher royalty rate. We estimate that the six major shale plays generated $39 billion in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-4

Working Paper
The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices
Kilian, Lutz; Rapson, David; Schipper, Burkhard (2024-03-26)
This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals crude in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted much of its crude oil exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power. We also ...
Working Papers , Paper 2401

Working Paper
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations
Richter, Alexander W.; Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael D. (2024-11-12)
This paper studies the general equilibrium effects of time-varying geopolitical risk in the oil market by simultaneously modeling downside risk from disasters, oil storage and the endogenous determination of oil price and macroeconomic uncertainty in the global economy. Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations. Even when allowing for the possibility of an unprecedented 20 percent drop in global oil production, it takes a large increase in the probability ...
Working Papers , Paper 2403

Working Paper
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations
Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael D.; Richter, Alexander W. (2026-03-02)
Market participants and policymakers are concerned about major oil production shortfalls driven by geopolitical events. Even when such events never materialize, unanticipated increases in the probability of a production shortfall may generate a surge in the price of oil and oil price uncertainty. We provide the first systematic account of the quantitative importance of time-varying geopolitical risk to oil production for the global economy. We show that a 20 percentage point increase in the probability of a 5% shortfall in oil production causes a 0.12% reduction in output. When considering a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2403

Low oil prices, local impact: Do depressed energy markets affect banks?
Byun, SungJe; Klemme, Kelly (2025-08-07)
Oil prices have swung dramatically in recent years, shaped by geopolitical conflicts, evolving global demand and shifting energy policies.
Dallas Fed Banking

Oil and gas industry shows discipline on capex, but risks remain
Byun, SungJe (2025-03-31)
Oil and gas companies will likely maintain a conservative stance toward production growth, with continued focus on capital discipline and maintenance capex.
Dallas Fed Banking

Lessons from the destabilization of inflation in the 1970s
Kilian, Lutz (2026-02-17)
Interest has recently increased in the question of whether the destabilization of inflation during the 1970s might repeat itself in the 2020s.
Dallas Fed Economics

Implications of the Iran war for U.S. inflation
Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing; Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael D. (2026-04-17)
Recent research quantifies the impact of 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation and household inflation expectations under a range of scenarios. Under a plausible scenario, 2026 fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter headline personal consumption expenditures inflation would increase by 0.6 percentage points.
Dallas Fed Economics

Discussion Paper
Will Peak Demand Roil Global Oil Markets?
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2025-04-14)
“Peak oil”—the notion that the depletion of accessible petroleum deposits would soon lead to declining global oil output and an upward trend in prices—was widely debated in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Proponents of the peak supply thesis turned out to be wrong, given the introduction of fracking and other new extraction methods. Now the notion of peak oil is back, but in reverse form, with global demand set to flatten and then fade amid growing use of EVs and other low-carbon technologies. The arrival of “peak demand” would turn global oil markets into a zero-sum game: Supply ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250414

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