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Discussion Paper
Inflation and the Price Expectations of Firms
n the spring of 2021, inflation started to climb above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent target. By June 2022, the inflation rate had increased to territory not seen since the early 1980s – year-over-year growth in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 9.1 percent, while growth in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI), which is followed most closely by the FOMC, hit 7.0 percent. The most recent inflation readings are still extremely elevated—7.7 percent for the CPI (October 2022) and 6.2 percent for the PCEPI (September 2022).