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Report
Migration, Congestion Externalities, and the Evaluation of Spatial Investments
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Dinkelman, Taryn (2015-01-09)
The direct benefits of infrastructure in developing countries can be large, but if new infrastructure induces in-migration, congestion of other local publicly provided goods may offset the direct benefits. Using the example of rural household electrification in South Africa, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for migration when evaluating welfare gains of spatial programs. We also provide a practical approach to computing welfare gains that does not rely on land prices. We develop a location choice model that incorporates missing land markets and allows for congestion in local land. ...
Staff Report , Paper 506

Discussion Paper
Urban Marylanders Are Migrating to More Affordable and Smaller Metro Areas
Scavette, Adam; Waters, Keith (2024-03-07)
With its unemployment rate reaching 1.9 percent in December 2023, Maryland has the tightest labor market in the country, which poses an ongoing hiring challenge for the state's employers. A key contributor to the tightness is the state's slow post-pandemic labor force recovery, especially in the state's inner-ring suburbs of the District of Columbia. While some of the state's former workers and job seekers have dropped out of the labor force but have remained residents, others have left the state altogether, according to recent statistics that placed Maryland in the top 5 states by net ...
Regional Matters

Working Paper
Floating Population: Migration With(Out) Family and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity
Imbert, Clément; Monras, Joan; Seror, Marlon; Zylberberg, Yanos (2023-08-30)
This paper argues that migrants’ decision to bring their dependent family members shapes their consumption behavior, their choice of destination, and their sensitivity to migration barriers. We document that in China: (i) rural migrants disproportionately move to expensive cities; (ii) in these cities they live without their family and in poorer housing conditions; and (iii) they remit more, especially when living without their family. We then develop a quantitative general equilibrium spatial model in which migrant households choose whether, how (with or without their family), and where to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-26

Briefing
School Quality as a Tool for Attracting People to Rural Areas
Price, David A.; Marre, Alexander W.; Rupasingha, Anil (2020-08)
Many rural localities are interested in strategies for retaining residents and attracting newcomers. Recent research indicates that one promising strategy for rural development is maintaining and improving the quality of an area's public schools. In this research, which is the first national study of the relationship between school quality and migration flows in and out of rural areas, better outcomes for students in a rural county's schools were associated with higher migration into that county.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-08 , Pages 4

Working Paper
Public Debt, Private Pain: Regional Borrowing, Default, and Migration
Gordon, Grey; Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo (2021-07-30)
Working Paper , Paper 21-13

Report
Geographical reallocation and unemployment during the Great Recession: the role of the housing bust
Rhee, Serena; Karahan, Fatih (2013)
This paper quantitatively evaluates the hypothesis that the housing bust in 2007 decreased geographical reallocation and increased the dispersion and level of unemployment during the Great Recession. We construct an equilibrium model of multiple locations with frictional housing and labor markets. When house prices fall, the amount of home equity declines, making it harder for homeowners to afford the down payment on a new house after moving. Consequently, the decline in house prices reduces migration and causes unemployment to rise differently in different locations. The model accounts for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 605

Working Paper
The impact of migration on earnings inequality
Jackson, Osborne (2018-08-01)
This paper examines the impact of migration on earnings inequality using 1940?2015 data from the U.S. census and American Community Survey. Despite measurement challenges, I successfully replicate existing findings regarding national trends in earnings inequality and migration, and subsequently analyze regional and state patterns. Using 1940 birthplace information to instrument for migration, I find that recent immigration mildly increases the top decile earnings share, while recent in-migration and out-migration have no significant effects on such inequality. I estimate that immigration ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-5

Working Paper
Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando (2015-05-01)
We develop a dynamic trade model with spatially distinct labor markets facing varying exposure to international trade. The model captures the role of labor mobility frictions, goods mobility frictions, geographic factors, and input-output linkages in determining equilibrium allocations. We show how to solve the equilibrium of the model and take the model to the data without assuming that the economy is at a steady state and without estimating productivities, migration frictions, or trade costs, which can be difficult to identify. We calibrate the model to 22 sectors, 38 countries, and 50 U.S. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-9

Briefing
Did U.S. Immigration Policy Influence India’s IT Boom?
Morales, Nicolas; Khanna, Gaurav (2023-12)
We highlight an unintended consequence of U.S. immigration policy for high-skill workers. Indian college students and workers got skills in computer science in the 1990s — a key occupation for innovation and growth — with the prospects of migrating to work in the booming U.S. IT industry. However, many ended up not migrating or returning to India after a short period. These workers helped build the IT sector in India, which grew at outstanding rates in the late 2000s.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 42

Discussion Paper
How Has Germany's Economy Been Affected by the Recent Surge in Immigration?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-05-20)
Germany emerged as a leading destination for immigration around 2011, as the country's labor market improved while unemployment climbed elsewhere in the European Union. A second wave began in 2015, with refugees from the Middle East adding to already heavy inflows from Eastern Europe. The demographic consequences of the surge in immigration include a renewed rise in Germany's population and the stabilization of the country's median age. The macroeconomic consequences are hard to measure but look promising, since per capita income growth has held up and unemployment has declined. Data on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190520

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