Search Results
Working Paper
Uncertainty, instrument choice, and the uniqueness of Nash equilibrium: microeconomic and macroeconomic examples
This paper contains two examples of static, symmetric, positive-sum games with two strategic players and a play by nature: (1) a microeconomic game between duopolists with joint costs facing uncertain demands for differentiated goods and (2) a macroeconomic game between two countries' with inflation-bias preferences confronting uncertain demands for moneys. In both examples, each player can choose either of two variables as an instrument, and reaction functions are linear in the chosen instruments. With no uncertainty, there are four (Nash) equilibria, one for each possible instrument pair, ...
Briefing
Networks, Innovation and Productivity: A Conference Recap
How do employment targets affect firm dynamics? What is the relationship between inventor migration, and local productivity and knowledge spillovers? How are surplus gains from inventions distributed? These were among the questions addressed by economists during a recent Richmond Fed research conference.Economists from the Richmond Fed, research universities and other institutions met in Richmond for a conference in May. Researchers presented papers on a variety of topics, including digital advertising, R&D allocation, production networks, and knowledge creation and diffusion.
Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Adjust Prices in a High Inflation Environment?
How do firms set prices? What factors do they consider, and to what extent are cost increases passed through to prices? While these are important questions in general, they become even more salient during periods of high inflation. In this blog post, we highlight preliminary results from ongoing research on firms’ price-setting behavior, a joint project between researchers at the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York. We use a combination of open-ended interviews and a quantitative survey in our analysis. Firms reported that the strength of demand was the most important ...
Working Paper
Tom Sawyer and the construction of value
This paper challenges the common assumption that economic agents know their tastes. After reviewing previous research showing that valuation of ordinary products and experiences can be manipulated by non-normative cues, we present three studies showing that in some cases people do not even have a pre-existing sense of whether an experience is good or bad ? even when they have experienced a sample of it.
How Do Manufacturers Decide When to Invest in New Equipment?
Although purchasing more and better capital leads to higher productivity, explanations for when and why firms choose to adopt new technology are not straightforward. In this article, we shed some light on how manufacturers choose to adopt new technology by purchasing equipment. The decision can be complicated, so we surveyed manufacturers to get insights into how they approach it. We find that the top two reasons manufacturers invest in new equipment with advanced technology is to keep up with competitors and save on labor costs. But upgrading is not always an obvious choice. Manufacturers ...
Working Paper
Diamonds are forever, wars are not. Is conflict bad for private firms?
This paper studies the relationship between civil war and the value of firms in a poor, resource abundant country using microeconomic data for Angola. We focus on diamond mining firms and conduct an event study on the sudden end of the conflict, marked by the death of the rebel movement leader in 2002. We find that the stock market perceived this event as 'bad news' rather than 'good news' for companies holding concessions in Angola, as their abnormal returns declined by 4 percentage points. The event had no effect on a control portfolio of otherwise similar diamond mining companies. This ...
Newsletter
How Concentrated Is the Clearing Ecosystem and How Has It Changed Since 2007?
After the global financial crisis of 2008–09, regulators across the globe enacted regulations to repair and strengthen financial markets. Part of the regulations were to mandate that more financial market contracts are cleared through central counterparties (CCPs). CCPs are financial institutions that guarantee performance of a financial contract—typically the buying and selling of contracts related to securities or derivatives. In the United States, the regulations for central clearing were established by the Dodd–Frank Act in 2010 and further promulgated by rules enacted by the ...
Newsletter
Persistently Pessimistic: Consumer and Small Business Sentiment After the Covid Recession
Both consumer and small business sentiment indexes remain very pessimistic by historical standards. In this article, we take a closer look at possible explanations. Our analysis suggests that after the Covid-19 recession in the United States, the responses of consumers and small business owners to sentiment-related surveys have become less sensitive to labor market conditions.
Journal Article
The peopling of macroeconomics: Microeconomics of aggregate consumer expenditures
Since the 1950s economists have been building a theory of aggregate consumer spending, seeking to understand how individual households choose to spend and how their choices change when interest rates, the unemployment rate, and other economic indicators change. Before that time, economists looked for "economic laws" that would explain the connection between one set of economic aggregates and another, without considering the decisions of individual households. Although the process of connecting macroeconomic aggregates to individuals' behavior is far from complete, predictions of aggregate ...