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Journal Article
What’s Gone Wrong (and Right) in the Industrial Heartland?
Schweitzer, Mark E. (2017-09)
The historically Midwestern manufacturing region, sometimes referred to as the ?Rust Belt,? faced another challenging period after 2000 when manufacturing employment declined by 1.2 million jobs. This Commentary investigates the relative economic performance of this region versus other US metropolitan areas during and following these job losses. The analysis shows that while unemployment rates have recovered in the metro areas of the industrial heartland, other economic indicators lag behind the manufacturing-intensive metro areas outside of the region.
Economic Commentary , Issue September

Working Paper
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance
Cañas, Jesus; Kerr, Emily (2014-12-01)
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in ...
Working Papers , Paper 1416

Journal Article
The “Philly Fed Index” Turns 50 with Steadfast Success
Beetz Fenske, Caroline; Trebing, Michael E. (2018-10)
What is so telling about the Philadelphia Fed?s monthly manufacturing index? Explore why financial analysts, economists, and the press monitor it closely for clues about the overall U.S. economy.
Economic Insights , Volume 3 , Issue 4 , Pages 8-21

Speech
The Economic Health of the Region
Hirtle, Beverly (2021-01-14)
Remarks at the Waterfront Alliance Regional Symposium: Recovery and Resiliency in a New Era (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Investment in Mexico Falls Despite Rise in Remittances
Cañas, Jesus; Smith, Chloe N. (2021-06-29)
Mexico has grown more dependent on foreign direct investment and remittances after total investment declined sharply for a fourth consecutive year in 2020.
Dallas Fed Economics

Discussion Paper
Fifth District Firms Are Cautiously Optimistic About 2024 Despite Concerns
Kosakow, Jason (2024-12-11)
At the start of both 2023 and 2024, we asked our business survey panelists about their expectations for the upcoming year. In our recent December survey, we found that most manufacturing firms were pessimistic about the U.S. economy going into 2024 but were more bullish about their own-firm prospects. Additionally, manufacturers were more likely than services firms to expect lower revenue, employment, spending, and price growth in 2024 than they experienced before COVID-19.
Regional Matters

Working Paper
Manufacturing Employment Losses and the Economic Performance of the Industrial Heartland
Schweitzer, Mark E. (2017-06-22)
The industrial Midwest, sometimes referred to disparagingly as the ?Rust Belt,? has long been recognized as a distinct economic region and an important contributor to the US economy. Prior research has emphasized the role that losses in the manufacturing sector have played in the plight of several Midwestern states and cities, particularly in the late 1970s and early 1980s. We identify a hypothetical industrial heartland region consisting of MSAs that have high concentrations of 1969 earnings in manufacturing relative to the US average and that are located within the geography often ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1712

Working Paper
Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata
Monarch, Ryan; Park, Jooyoun; Sivadasan, Jagadeesh (2014-11-11)
We construct a new linked data set with over one thousand offshoring events by matching Trade Adjustment Assistance program petition data to confidential data on U.S. firm operations. We exploit these data to assess how offshoring affects domestic firm-level aggregate employment, output, wages and productivity. Consistent with heterogenous firm models where offshoring involves a fixed cost, we find that the average offshoring firm is larger and more productive than the average non-offshorer. After initiating offshoring, firms experience large declines in employment (46.2 per cent), output ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1124

Mexico seeks to solidify rank as top U.S. trade partner, push further past China
Torres, Luis (2023-07-11)
Mexico's emergence followed fractious U.S. relations with China, which had moved past Canada to claim the top trading spot in 2014. The dynamic changed in 2018 when the U.S. imposed tariffs on China’s goods and with subsequent pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions that altered international trade and investment flows worldwide.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Nebraska manufacturing and housing press onward
Kauffman, Nathan; Akers, Maria (2013-09)
Nebraska Economist

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