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Keywords:macroeconomic forecasts 

Working Paper
Assessing Central Bank Commitment to Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Financial Market Expectations in India

We propose a novel framework to gauge the credibility of central banks’ commitment to an inflation-targeting regime. Our framework combines survey data on macroeconomic forecasts with high-frequency financial market data to understand how inflation targeting makes economic agents change their perception about central bank decisions. Specifically, using the Reserve Bank of India’s adoption of inflation targeting in 2015 as a laboratory, we apply two different approaches to estimate a market-perceived monetary policy rule and analyze how it changed with the implementation of inflation ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-19

Discussion Paper
A Look at the Accuracy of Policy Expectations

Since the 1980s, the primary policy tool of the Federal Reserve has been the federal funds rate. Because expectations of the future path of the funds rate play a central role in the term structure of interest rates and thus the monetary transmission mechanism, it is important to know how accurate these expectations are in predicting the funds rate. In this post, we investigate this issue using a well-known survey of private sector forecasters. We find that forecasts tend to over-predict the funds rate in easing cycles and under-predict it in tightening cycles. In addition, while forecasts ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110822

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