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Speech
Remarks on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Musalem, Alberto G. (2025-03-03)
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the 41st annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. He gave a speech, “Remarks on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” and participated in a moderated Q&A.
Speech

Employment Trends before and after Business Expansion Peaks
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2024-08-20)
Nonfarm payroll and civilian employment are two measures of the U.S. labor market. How do they behave in the months leading up to a business expansion peak?
On the Economy

Speech
Good Day Sunshine
Williams, John C. (2021-06-21)
Remarks at Midsize Bank Coalition of America (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Speech
Brief Remarks at FedListens 2023: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy
Collins, Susan M. (2023-05-31)
Speech

Jobs Hardest Hit by the Pandemic
Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2020-10-12)
The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially affected labor markets. Which industries and occupations had the largest employment declines between February and April?
On the Economy

Using Data to Show When Recessions End
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-11-17)
Could weekly data—such as the Weekly Economic Index—be used in calculating when recessions end, in addition to monthly and quarterly data?
On the Economy

Speech
Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy during UBS Panel
Bullard, James B. (2021-11-09)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard shared his views on various aspects of the U.S. economy and monetary policy during a panel discussion at the UBS European Conference 2021.Bullard said he thinks that U.S. real GDP growth coming in softer than expected in the third quarter is “a temporary phenomenon,” with growth being pushed out to the fourth quarter and through next year. He expects real GDP growth to be higher than 4% for all of 2022.In discussing the very tight labor market in the U.S., Bullard cited the unemployment-to-vacancies ratio, the unemployment rate and a labor market ...
Speech

Discussion Paper
Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?
Rich, Robert W.; Bram, Jason; Abel, Joshua (2013-09-04)
Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s another useful dimension to consumer confidence that’s often overlooked: its ability to signal incipient developments in the job market. In this post, we look at trends in a particular measure of consumer confidence—the Present Situation Index component of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—over the past thirty-five years and show that they’re closely associated with ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130904

Journal Article
Where Are Labor Markets the Tightest? A Tale of the 100 Largest US Cities
Rubinton, Hannah; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Marks, Cassandra; Rodgers, William M. (2023-12-15)
How does labor market tightness vary across the US, and how have labor markets changed since the pandemic? The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is a common measure.
Economic Synopses , Issue 25 , Pages 3 pages

Journal Article
A Simple Model of Gross Worker Flows across Labor Market States
Veracierto, Marcelo (2015-04)
The author develops a simple model of the gross flows of workers across labor market states that is based on Krusell et al. (2012). Its simplicity allows for analytical derivations that make the determination of these flows transparent. Moreover, he finds that if errors in the classification of agents? labor market states are introduced and allowed to vary over time, the model has the ability to generate business cycle dynamics similar to those observed in the U.S. data. However, its dynamics are driven essentially by exogenous factors, not endogenous ones.
Economic Perspectives , Issue Q II

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