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Speech
Remarks for the Panel Discussion “Why Did We Miscast Inflation?”
Collins, Susan M. (2023-02-24)
Inflation remains too high, and recent data – including several strong labor market indicators, as well as faster than expected retail sales and producer price inflation – all reinforce my view that we have more work to do, to bring inflation down to the 2 percent target. While optimistic there is a path to restoring price stability without a significant downturn, I am also well aware of the many risks and uncertainties, including the risk of a self-fulfilling loss of business and consumer confidence.
Speech

Discussion Paper
How Have Racial and Ethnic Earnings Gaps Changed after COVID-19?
Chatterji-Len, Kasey; García, Daniel I.; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2022-10-20)
Racial and ethnic earnings disparities have been salient features of the U.S. economy for decades. Between the pandemic-driven recession in 2020 and the rising inflation since 2021, workers’ real and nominal earnings have seen rapid change. To get a sense of how recent economic conditions have affected earnings disparities, we examine real and nominal weekly earnings trends for Asian, Black, Hispanic, and white workers. We find that average real weekly earnings have been declining in the past year, but less so for Black and Hispanic workers than for white and Asian workers. Black and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20221020a

Discussion Paper
Are Signs of Labor Market Normalization Reflected in Wage Growth?
Haltom, Nicholas; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath (2023-07-28)
There have been two salient features of the U.S. economy in the past two years: a tight labor market and high inflation. In the Richmond Fed business surveys, the tight labor market has manifested in a high employment index combined with a low availability of skills index; high inflation has corresponded with extreme elevation in our survey's measures of growth in prices paid and prices received. Recently, all of these survey measures have either reached or made notable progress toward reaching more historically normal levels. It is hard to imagine, however, a rebalanced labor market or ...
Regional Matters

Newsletter
Exploring the Dynamics of Unemployment
Caceres-Santamaria, Andrea J. (2024-05)
Unemployment dynamics influence people’s reasons for entering the labor market and their behavior within it. This article uses Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Population Survey (CPS) data to examine labor market trends and the experiences of new entrants, re-entrants, job leavers, and job losers, highlighting how each group's behavior differs over time and during economic downturns. It emphasizes the impact of recessions on overall unemployment rates and cyclical sensitivity: This understanding can help policymakers and businesses make informed decisions and foster growth while ...
Page One Economics Newsletter

Journal Article
Stubborn Inflation, Economic Resilience Major Themes in U.S. Outlook
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2023-06-27)
Forecasted real GDP growth in 2023 and the strong labor market suggest the U.S. macroeconomy has been resilient, but core inflation remains stubbornly high.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
Consumer Debt Is High, but Consumers Seem to Have Room to Run
Brown, Jason; Tousey, Colton (2024-05-17)
Real consumer debt is now higher than its prior peak during the global financial crisis, driven in part by increases in credit card debt. Although the share of credit card debt transitioning into delinquency has risen, it remains below levels seen during the global financial crisis. Moreover, debt-to-income measures remain historically low, suggesting that consumers in aggregate may have more room to run up debt before experiencing further financial stress.
Economic Bulletin

Discussion Paper
How to Get the (High-Skilled) Workers?
Haltom, Nicholas; Walker, Jacob (2022-10-06)
Over the past year, the labor market has been extremely tight, with record high job openings and historically low unemployment. So, it's no surprise that firms have struggled to find workers. To overcome hiring challenges, firms have been using various strategies, the most common of which is wage increases. Those strategies may be paying off to some extent: Our Fifth District business surveys suggest that the worst of the challenge finding workers has passed. Nonetheless, firms are still reporting difficulties, and our most recent survey revealed a notable shift in the type of workers firms ...
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
Lagging Labor Force Participation in Maryland and Virginia
Mengedoth, Joseph (2022-09-23)
By July 2022, the U.S. had officially regained the jobs lost in the pandemic, the unemployment rate matched its pre-pandemic low, and the size of the labor force (the sum of employed and unemployed looking for work) was almost back to its pre-pandemic level. The same was true for many states in the Fifth District. Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia had recovered nearly all the jobs lost in February and March of 2020, while North and South Carolina had more than fully recovered. Unemployment rates were at or below pre-pandemic rates across much of the Fifth District as well.
Regional Matters

Journal Article
Research Spotlight: Immigration and Labor Market Outcomes
Li, Lindsay (2024-12-05)
Immigration policy is a contentious issue. Some fear that an influx of immigrants will "crowd out" natives in the labor market — that is, displace native workers by competing for the same jobs — while others claim that immigrants increase productivity by contributing new skill sets that supplement the skills of natives.
Econ Focus , Volume 24 , Issue 4Q , Pages 12

Journal Article
Weaker GDP Growth, Inflation Uncertainty Dim U.S. Economic Outlook
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2022-11-23)
Forecasts for weaker U.S. GDP growth in 2023 and uncertainty over high inflation contrast sharply with strong labor market conditions and household consumption.
The Regional Economist

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