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Journal Article
The Opioid Epidemic, the Fifth District, and the Labor Force
Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath (2018-04)
Economic Trends Across the Region looks at the Opioid Epidemic, the Fifth District, and the Labor Force.
Econ Focus , Issue 2Q , Pages 32-35

Journal Article
Employment Challenges for the Formerly Incarcerated
Engel, Emily; Kuehl, Steven; O'Dell, Mark (2016)
The U.S. economy is on a historic run of job creation, with 76 straight months of job growth as of June 2016. Many firms are looking for new pools of talent as traditional pools are increasingly absorbed by rising employment. Wages are beginning to rise more rapidly than they have for several years, with ADP?s Workforce Vitality Report for Q1 2016 estimating annual wage growth for full-time job holders of 4.7 percent. The strengthening labor market provides an opportunity for both employers and policymakers to reconsider the status of subgroups that face distinct barriers to the job market. ...
Profitwise , Issue 2 , Pages 14-17

Journal Article
Young Workers Fuel Recovery in Jobs Requiring a High School Diploma or Less
Pollard, Emily (2024-06-14)
The labor force of individuals with a high school diploma or less has surpassed pre-pandemic levels thanks to an increase in the number of young workers. However, this shift toward younger workers could affect both the current and future productive capacity of the economy. Young workers lack experience and work fewer hours, which could lead to productivity losses in the short term. More concerningly, some young people appear to be foregoing education to work, which may hurt their future labor market prospects.
Economic Bulletin

Speech
Prospects for the local economy and the importance of workforce development: remarks at Onondaga Community College, Syracuse, New York
Dudley, William (2017-09-25)
Remarks at Onondaga Community College, Syracuse, New York.
Speech , Paper 255

Briefing
The Pandemic's Impact on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Trends
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-04)
Following early 2020 responses to the pandemic, labor force participation declined dramatically and has remained below its 2019 level, whereas the unemployment rate recovered briskly. We estimate the trend of labor force participation and unemployment and find a substantial impact of the pandemic on estimates of trend. It turns out that levels of labor force participation and unemployment in 2021 were approaching their estimated trends. A return to 2019 levels would then represent a tight labor market, especially relative to long-run demographic trends that suggest further declines in the ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 12

Discussion Paper
Inflation and Japan's Ever-Tightening Labor Market
De Paoli, Bianca; Wheeler, Harry; Klitgaard, Thomas (2016-11-14)
Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161114

Speech
Adaptation: How Educators and Employees Evolve to Meet the Needs of a Changing Landscape
Harker, Patrick T. (2018-10-10)
"The changing landscape of the labor market offers an opportunity to assess how we?re preparing today?s students for tomorrow?s jobs,? said Philadelphia Fed President Patrick T. Harker today in his remarks on the role of higher education
Speech , Paper 154

Journal Article
The Role of Immigration in U.S. Labor Market Tightness
Duzhak, Evgeniya A. (2023-02-27)
Immigrants contribute a large portion of the growth in the U.S. population and labor force. However, immigration flows into the United States slowed significantly following immigration policy changes from 2017 to 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis of state-level data shows that this migration slowdown tightened local labor markets modestly, raising the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers 5.5 percentage points between 2017 and 2021. More recent data show immigration has rebounded strongly, helping to close the shortfall in foreign-born labor and ease tight labor ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 06 , Pages 6

Newsletter
Understanding the Relationship between Real Wage Growth and Labor Market Conditions
Jordan, Andrew; Aaronson, Daniel (2014-10)
The authors find that the share of the labor force that is medium-term unemployed (five to 26 weeks unemployed) and the share working part time (less than 35 hours per week) involuntarily are strongly correlated with real wage growth. Moreover, they estimate that average real wage growth would have been between one-half of a percentage point and a full percentage point higher in June 2014 if 2005?07 labor market conditions had been restored, indicating that the slack in the jobs market still weighs heavily on the real wage prospects of U.S. workers.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Oct

Working Paper
Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Valletta, Robert G. (2020-05-05)
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. The possible paths vary widely, but absent ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-18

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