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A Guide to State-Level Estimates of Labor Force Participation Rates
Changes in the US labor force participation rates (LFPRs) have brought attention to state-level estimates. This brief discusses state-level estimates of the LFPR and what they can—and cannot—tell us about recent LFPR trends in our region.
Working Paper
Recent Employment Growth in Cities, Suburbs, and Rural Communities
This paper uses a comprehensive source of yearly data to study private-sector labor demand across US counties during the past five decades. Our focus is on how employment levels and earnings relate to population density—that is, how labor markets in rural areas, suburbs, and cities have fared relative to one another. Three broad lessons emerge. First, the longstanding suburbanization of employment and population in cities with very dense urban cores essentially stopped in the first decade of the 21st century. For cities with less dense cores, however, the decentralization of employment ...
Journal Article
Postpandemic Nominal Wage Growth: Inflation Pass-Through or Labor Market Imbalance?
Measures of wage growth have increased substantially during and after the pandemic compared to their average levels in the decade before. Does higher wage growth reflect compensation for a higher cost of living, brought about by an increase in inflation in the past two years? Or has an imbalance between strong labor demand and restrained labor supply lifted wage growth? Using a new empirical wage Phillips curve model, we find that the increase in wage growth largely reflects the pass-through of higher inflation and does not reflect labor market imbalances. The model forecasts a decline in ...
The Influence of Population Characteristics on the Labor Force Participation Rates of Fourth District States
The labor force participation rates of the Fourth District are lower than the nation’s. Fourth District states’ older populations and higher disability rates are key reasons for lower participation rates relative to the nation.
Report
The Affordable Care Act and the labor market: a first look
I consider changes in labor markets across U.S. states and counties around the enactment of the Affordable Care Act in 2010 and its implementation in 2014. I find that counties with large fractions of uninsured (and therefore a large exposure to the ACA) before the enactment or the implementation of the ACA experienced more rapid employment and salary growth than did counties with smaller fractions of people uninsured, both after the implementation of the ACA and after its enactment. I also find that the growth of the fraction of employees in states with larger uninsurance rates was not ...
Journal Article
Wage Growth, Labor Market Tightness, and Inflation: A Service Sector Analysis
This Economic Commentary explores the connections among labor market tightness, wage inflation, and price inflation at the service sector level. Across most service sectors, sector-specific labor market tightness and nominal wage growth have been above prepandemic averages since 2022. The data suggest that a stronger positive relationship between labor market tightness and wage growth has emerged in the aftermath of the pandemic. The relationship between sector-specific wage growth and inflation is more varied. In the education and health services sector, higher wage growth is associated with ...