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New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Wilson, Daniel J.
(2026-01-13)
A sudden reversal in U.S. net unauthorized immigration has important implications for the demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth and local labor markets.
Dallas Fed Economics
Climbing the employment ladder tough when bottom rung is broken
Rincker, Theresa; Cheremukhin, Anton
(2026-05-26)
Recent labor market data appear to reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Because aggregate layoffs remain low by historical standards, the upward drift in the unemployment rate over the past two years is often viewed as a benign normalization process rather than a cyclical vulnerability.
Dallas Fed Economics
International comparisons show AI effect on productivity
Davis, J. Scott
(2026-07-07)
Because AI use varies across countries, we can draw on international data to investigate the relationship between AI exposure and productivity growth at the sector level. The positive relationship in the U.S. fits a pattern visible among countries and appears related to high AI use.
Dallas Fed Economics
The Paycheck Protection Program: Conditional Success or Unconditional Failure?
Kapinos, Pavel
(2021-06-22)
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act became law in March 2020, marking an initial federal response to the emerging economic disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dallas Fed Economics
Shift to Working from Home Diminished Large Cities' Productivity Premium
Su, Yichen; Liu, Sitian
(2022-08-30)
Since the start of the pandemic, the reduced presence of in-office workers has reduced the wage premium attached to large cities and may have diminished the productivity edge of these areas.
Dallas Fed Economics
El Paso Aims to End Brain Drain with Global Manufacturing, Higher-Paying Jobs
Torres, Luis; Hines, Keighton
(2022-11-10)
Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan met with El Paso business and community leaders in mid-October in the second of 12 stops on her 360° in 365 Listening Tour.
Dallas Fed Economics
Migration to Texas Fills Critical Gaps in Workforce, Human Capital
Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline; Morales-Burnett, Diego
(2022-11-29)
Continuing to retain working-age Texans and attract new ones from around the country and abroad is vital to maintaining the state’s workforce—its human capital—as baby boomers retire and birth rates decline.
Dallas Fed Economics
Diversified San Antonio Confronts Economic Divide Among Youth
Torres, Luis; Orrenius, Pia M.
(2022-12-01)
Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan met with San Antonio business and community leaders in mid-October in the third stop on her 360° in 365 Listening Tour.
Dallas Fed Economics
Recent growth of professional services jobs favors select Texas counties
Su, Yichen; Pranger, Ana
(2023-05-16)
Professional services jobs have grown faster in Texas than in the U.S. since 2020, partly because of business relocations to the state. This expansion has been highly geographically clustered, with 10 of Texas’ 254 counties accounting for more than 92 percent of the statewide growth.
Dallas Fed Economics
Wage growth still exceeds 3 percent despite slowing in business survey measures
Atkinson, Tyler; Kerr, Emily
(2023-08-01)
Fed policymakers working to reduce inflation have closely monitored how fast wages have risen. National estimates put recent 12-month wage inflation at around 4–5 percent, though these measures can lag other indicators of labor market conditions. More timely wage data can be found from the five regional Federal Reserve Banks that run business surveys.
Dallas Fed Economics
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