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Journal Article
What’s the Best Measure of Economic Slack?
Different ways of measuring the economy’s unused capacity, or slack, can result in varying inflation forecasts. Estimates suggest that direct measures of labor market tightness, such as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment or the rate of employee job switching, provide more accurate forecasts than commonly used measures, such as the unemployment rate or the output gap. Recent elevated values of these measures of labor market tightness suggest greater inflation pressure than is implied by the unemployment rate alone.
Journal Article
How Much Has the Cooling Economy Reduced Inflation?
Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to unemployed workers and of vacancies to effective job seekers—are particularly informative in determining excess demand’s impact on recent inflation. The measures suggest that declines in excess demand pushed inflation down almost three-quarters of a percentage point over the past two years. However, elevated demand continued to contribute 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to inflation as of ...