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Report
Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation
di Giovanni, Julian; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Silva, Alvaro; Yildirim, Muhammed A. (2022-07-01)
We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on euro area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: (1) compositional effects, or the switch from services to goods consumption, are amplified through global input-output linkages, affecting both trade and inflation; (2) inflation can be higher under sector-specific labor shortages relative to a scenario with no such supply shocks; (3) foreign shocks and global supply chain bottlenecks played an ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1024

Report
Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Mejean, Isabelle (2020-11-01)
This paper uses a data set covering the universe of French firm-level sales, imports, and exports over the period 1993-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. The largest firms are both important enough to generate aggregate fluctuations (Gabaix 2011), and most likely to be internationally connected. This implies that foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the largest firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly ...
Staff Reports , Paper 947

Working Paper
The Effects of Terror on International Air Passenger Transport: An Empirical Investigation
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Pham, Cong S.; Mitra, Devashish (2017-02-01)
This paper presents a theoretical model (adapted from the structural gravity model by Anderson and van Wincoop, 2003) to capture the effects of terrorism on air passenger traffic between nations affected by terrorism. We then use equations derived from this model, in conjunction with alternative functional forms for trade costs, to estimate the effects of terrorism on bilateral air passenger flows from 57 source countries to 25 destination countries for the period of 2000 to 2014. We find that an additional terrorist incident results in approximately a 1.2% decrease in the bilateral air ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-2

Journal Article
Import Tariffs and Illegal Immigration: A Strategic Analysis
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Pinto, Santiago (2026-06-24)
We examine the effects of tariffs in a two-country specific-factors model with endogenous illegal immigration. While tariffs generate the usual terms-of-trade gains in goods markets for the host country, they also raise wages and attract additional illegal immigration. Increased immigration-related costs and higher wage costs of hiring immigrants may reduce the welfare of citizens of the host country. We also show that within the context of our two-nation framework, free trade need not maximize joint welfare when illegal immigration and certain immigration-related costs are present. Finally, ...
Review , Volume 108 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-12

Discussion Paper
A Country‑Specific View of Tariffs
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2025-10-06)
U.S. trade policy remains in flux. Nevertheless, important elements of the new policy regime are apparent in data through July. What stands out are the large differences in realized tariff rates by trading partner, ranging from less than 5 percent for Canada and Mexico to 15 percent for Japan and to 40 percent for China. This post shows that the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors: the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20251006

Journal Article
US Barriers to International Trade of Goods: Tariffs and Non-Tariff Measures
Leibovici, Fernando; Dunn, Jason (2023-04-28)
US imports are obstructed by both tariffs and non-tariff measures, which vary significantly across industries.
Economic Synopses , Issue 9 , Pages 3 pages

Working Paper
Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Li, Nan; Cai, Jie (2019-11-18)
We provide a unified framework for quantifying the cross country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. We study the effect of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. A reduction in trade costs induces a re-allocation of comparative advantage in production and innovation across sectors, which translates into higher growth along the counterfactual balanced growth path (BGP). Heterogeneous knowledge diffusion across ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-29

Journal Article
Did Importers Try to Front-Run Recent Tariffs on China?
Cook, Thomas R.; Dzholos, Mariia (2025-01-17)
Because tariffs are a tax on foreign goods, tariffs are thought to reduce imports. However, imports may actually increase after a tariff is announced if importers can stock inventories ahead of the tariff’s implementation. We find that after the announcement of additional tariffs on China in May 2024, imports from China increased by 15 percent for EV batteries, which are difficult to substitute.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
International Trade Policy During a Pandemic
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Leibovici, Fernando (2021-09)
This paper studies international trade policy during a pandemic. We consider a multi-sector small open economy model with essential and non-essential goods. Essential goods provide utility relative to a reference consumption level, and a pandemic consists of an increase in this reference level along with higher import and export prices of these goods. The economy produces domestic varieties of both types of goods subject to sectoral adjustment costs, and varieties are traded internationally subject to trade barriers. We find that trade provides limited relief to the increased demand for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-010

Working Paper
International trade and labor reallocation: misclassification errors, mobility, and switching costs
Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2023-12)
International trade has increased at a rapid pace in the last decades, altering production and labor demand in different sectors of the economy. The estimated effects of trade on employment and welfare critically depend on data about workers’ reallocation patterns, which is typically plagued with coding errors. I show that the estimated employment and welfare effects of international trade, and the estimated structural parameters of standard models are biased when the analysis uses data subject to misclassification errors. I develop an econometric framework to estimate misclassification ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-014

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