Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Report
President’s Message: Trade and Globalization since the 1980s
Bullard, James B. (2022)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discusses the growth of international trade since the 1980s and the reassessment of globalization in recent years.
Annual Report

Working Paper
Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics
Cuba-Borda, Pablo A.; Queraltó, Albert; Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo M.; Scaramucci, Mikaël (2025-03-04)
We explore how shocks to trade costs affect inflation dynamics in the global economy. We exploit bilateral trade flows of final and intermediate goods together with the structure of static trade models that deliver gravity equations to identify exogenous changes in trade costs between countries. We then use a local projections approach to assess the effects of trade cost shocks on consumer price (CPI) inflation. Higher trade costs of final goods lead to large but short-lived increases in inflation, while increases in trade costs of intermediate goods generate small but persistent increases in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2508

Journal Article
Did Importers Try to Front-Run Recent Tariffs on China?
Cook, Thomas R.; Dzholos, Mariia (2025-01-17)
Because tariffs are a tax on foreign goods, tariffs are thought to reduce imports. However, imports may actually increase after a tariff is announced if importers can stock inventories ahead of the tariff’s implementation. We find that after the announcement of additional tariffs on China in May 2024, imports from China increased by 15 percent for EV batteries, which are difficult to substitute.
Economic Bulletin

Briefing
Supply Chain Resilience and the Effects of Economic Shocks
Morales, Nicolas (2025-01)
Supply chains have long been integral to the U.S. economy, allowing firms to capitalize on specialization and efficiency. However, recent developments like the COVID-19 pandemic, global geopolitical tensions and increasing climate risk have revealed their vulnerabilities as well as their abilities to propagate and amplify economic shocks. In response, firms and policymakers are increasingly focusing on strategies to bolster supply chain resilience. This article explores how economic shocks can propagate through the supply chain, the trade-offs associated with resilience investments, and ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 02

Working Paper
Financing Constraints, Firm Dynamics, and International Trade
Verani, Stéphane; Gross, Till (2012-08)
There is growing empirical support for the conjecture that access to credit is an important determinant of firms' export decisions. We study a multi-country general equilibrium economy in which entrepreneurs and lenders engage in long-term credit relationships. Financial constraints arise in consequence of financials contracts that are optimal given information asymmetry. Consistent with empirical regularities, as firm age and size increase, the model implies decreasing mean and variance of fi rm growth and increasing fi rm survival. Exporters are larger, their survival in international ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2012-68

Working Paper
Structural Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Open Economy Perspective
de Vries, Gaaitzen; Yi, Kei-Mu; Mensah, Emmanuel; Kruse, Hagen; Vidogbena, Yabo (2024-12-24)
We study the evolution of manufacturing value added shares in 11 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change. Our analysis leverages recent developments in input-output tables in SSA countries. Our model allows for income effects via non-homothetic preferences, substitution and relative price effects, as well as comparative advantage and specialization effects. We calibrate our model to include each SSA country with nine other major economies for each year between 2000 and 2018. We also do a similar set of calibrations for 11 developing ...
Working Papers , Paper 2418

Briefing
Tariff Update: Incorporating the April 9 Announcements
Azzimonti-Renzo, Marina; Edwards, Zach; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath; Wyckoff, Acacia (2025-04-16)
This article updates our previous analysis covering the potential effects of announced tariffs by the U.S. As the analysis is quite similar to our previous analysis, much of the text of the article is drawn from the previous article.In our April 2 article examining recent tariff announcements, we constructed a benchmark measure of the average effective tariff rate (AETR) based on detailed trade data for 2024. The analysis quantified the fiscal and trade effects of newly proposed tariffs through a series of counterfactual scenarios. These included tariffs on aluminum and steel, renewed duties ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 15

Journal Article
The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World
Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2023-04-10)
This article provides an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock. In 2020, it severely impacted output growth and employment, particularly in middle-income countries. Governments responded primarily by increasing expenditure, supported by an expansion of the supply of money and debt. These policies did not put upward pressure on prices until 2021. International trade was severely disrupted across all regions in 2020 but subsequently recovered. For 2021, we find that the adverse effects of the COVID-19 shock on output and prices were significant and persistent, ...
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 2 , Pages 74-88

Working Paper
Forward Looking Exporters
de Soyres, Francois; Frohm, Erik; Highkin, Emily; Mix, Carter (2023-07-13)
This paper studies the role of expectations in driving export adjustment. We assemble bilateral data on spot exchange rates, one year ahead exchange rate forecasts and HS2-product export data for 11 exporting countries and 64 destinations, covering the 2006–2014 period. Results from fixed effects regressions and an instrumental variables approach show that expectations of exchange rate changes are an important channel for export adjustment. A one percent expected exchange rate depreciation over the next year is associated with a 0.96 percent increase in the extensive margin (entry of new ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1377

Journal Article
The Economic Effects of a Potential Armed Conflict Over Taiwan
Neely, Christopher J. (2025-02-26)
This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, and banking problems, and it would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only ...
Review , Volume 107 , Issue 3 , Pages 1-23

show more (2)

show more (62)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords