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Journal Article
Are Banks Exposed to Interest Rate Risk?
While banks seem to face inherent risk from short-term interest rate changes, in practice they structure their balance sheets to avoid exposure to such risk. Nonetheless, recent research finds that banks cannot offload all of the interest rate risk they are naturally exposed to. Historically, banks’ profit margins reflect their compensation for taking on interest rate risk and their stock prices are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. These findings can help practitioners assess banks’ risk exposures and may have implications for unconventional monetary policy.
Journal Article
Assessing supervisory scenarios for interest rate risk
A new proposal by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision for setting the amount of capital banks must hold against potential losses from interest rate risk uses only a few, very stylized scenarios. Analysis shows the proposed scenarios are extremely unlikely to occur. While they may be appropriate for setting bank capital guidelines, they are much less relevant for everyday risk management. Instead, using a modeling framework with a plausible range of interest rate scenarios would be more relevant to help banks manage their interest rate risk.
Working Paper
Measuring Interest Rate Risk in the Life Insurance Sector: The U.S. and the U.K.
We use a two factor model of life insurer stock returns to measure interest rate risk at U.S. and U.K. insurers. Our estimates show that interest rate risk among U.S. life insurers increased as interest rates decreased to historically low levels in recent years. For life insurers in the U.K., in contrast, interest rate risk remained low during this time, roughly unchanged from what it was in the period prior to the financial crisis when long-term interest rates were in their usual historical ranges. We attribute these differences to the heavier use of products that combine guarantees with ...
Working Paper
How inflationary is an extended period of low interest rates?
Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple test of models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be inflationary. But a monetary model should be rejected if a reasonably short nominal rate peg results in an unreasonably large inflation response. We pursue this simple test in three variants of the familiar dynamic new Keynesian (DNK) model. All of these models fail this test. Further some variants of the model produce inflation reversals ...
Working Paper
Tail Sensitivity of US Bank Net Interest Margins: A Bayesian Penalized Quantile Regression Approach
Bank net interest margins (NIM) have been historically stable in the US on average, but this stability deteriorated in the post-2020 period, particularly in the tails of the distribution. Recent literature disagrees on the extent to which banks hedge interest rate risk, and past literature shows that credit risk and persistence are also important considerations for bank NIM. I use a novel approach to Bayesian dynamic panel quantile regression to document heterogeneity in US bank NIM estimated sensitivities to interest rates, credit risk, and own persistence. I find increased sensitivity to ...
Working Paper
Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks
We show that the slope of the yield curve affects bank lending and economic activity through an "expected bank profitability channel." Using detailed banking data and term premium shocks identified via instrumental variables or event studies, we show that a steeper yield curve—when driven by higher term premiums rather than higher expected short rates—increases bank profits and loan supply. Intuitively, a higher term premium raises the expected returns from maturity transformation—a core banking activity—thereby incentivizing bank lending. This effect is more pronounced for banks with ...
Journal Article
Bank Franchise as a Stabilizing Force
The banking shock of 2023 stemmed from banks’ exposure to interest rate risk by gathering short-term funds to invest in long-term assets. When interest rates rose rapidly during the monetary tightening cycle, banks incurred significant capital losses on their long-term assets, some of which were unrealized on their financial statements. However, bank franchise value—the present value of all future excess profits—which is also unrecognized, could hedge against the losses and provide some stability. Moreover, the potential loss of franchise value could discourage risk-taking, further ...
Journal Article
The Failure of the Bank of the Commonwealth: An Early Example of Interest Rate Risk
This Economic Commentary describes the collapse and subsequent bailout of the Detroit-headquartered Bank of the Commonwealth in 1972. Commonwealth failed because it invested heavily in long-duration, fixed-rate municipal securities in the mid-1960s in a bet that interest rates would decline. Instead, with the beginning of the Great Inflation of 1965–1980, rates rose. Liquidity problems then ensued, and the bank approached failure. Unable to find an acquirer because of Michigan’s banking restrictions, regulators instead bailed out the bank because of fears of contagion. This article also ...
Working Paper
Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Banks engage in maturity transformation and the term premium compensates them for bearing the associated duration risk. Consistent with this view, I show that banks’ net interest margins and term premia have comoved in the United States over the last decades. On monetary policy announcement days, banks’ stock prices fall in response to an increase in expected future short-term interest rates but rise if term premia increase. These effects are reflected in the response of banks’ net interest margins and amplified for institutions with a larger maturity mismatch. The results reveal that ...