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Working Paper
The Social Returns to Public R&D
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel (2025-05-14)
Recent empirical evidence by Fieldhouse and Mertens (2024) points to a strong causal link between federal nondefense R&D funding and private-sector productivity growth, and large implied social returns to public R&D investment. We show that these high social return estimates broadly align with existing evidence on the social returns to private or total R&D spending. If the R&D increases authorized under the CHIPS and Science Act were fully appropriated, our modeling indicates a boost in U.S. productivity within a few years, reaching gains of 0.2–0.4% after seven years or more. At their ...
Working Papers , Paper 2519

Journal Article
The Innovation Puzzle: Patents and Productivity Growth
Kalyani, Aakash (2024-03-29)
Understanding the pace and nature of technological progress is key for evaluating innovation policy and projecting economic growth.
Economic Synopses , Issue 7

Working Paper
The Monetization of Innovation
Warusawitharana, Missaka; Zucchi, Francesca (2022-12)
We develop a dynamic model for digital service firms, which invest in monetization to generate revenues from services provided to customers for free. Our model captures and explains why such firms often build a large customer base and become highly valued while continuing to suffer losses—traditional models would struggle to explain this pattern. Counterfactual analysis reveals that monetization uncertainty slows technological advancement by diverting resources away from innovation. We also show that regulation aimed at protecting user privacy has sizable adverse effect on firm size and the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-084

Discussion Paper
The Mysterious Slowdown in U.S. Manufacturing Productivity
Pearce, Jeremy; Lashkari, Danial (2024-07-11)
Throughout the twentieth century, steady technological and organizational innovations, along with the accumulation of productive capital, increased labor productivity at a steady rate of around 2 percent per year. However, the past two decades have witnessed a slowdown in labor productivity, measured as value added per hour worked. This slowdown has been particularly stark in the manufacturing sector, which historically has been a leading sector in driving the productivity of the aggregate U.S. economy. What makes this slowdown particularly puzzling is the fact that manufacturing accounts for ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240711

Working Paper
The Diffusion of New Technologies
Lerner, Joshua; Hassan, Tarek A.; Bloom, Nicholas; Tahoun, Ahmed; Carvalho, Marcela; Kalyani, Aakash (2024-08-26)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Aakash Kalyani, Nicholas Bloom, Marcela Carvalho, Tarek Hassan, Josh Lerner, and Ahmed Tahoun. We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically impactful new technologies is geographically highly concentrated, more so even than overall patenting: 56% of the most economically impactful technologies come from just two U.S. locations, Silicon Valley and the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-009

Importance of Studying Innovations in Payment Technologies
Bullard, James B. (2022-05-16)
For several years, economists at the St. Louis Fed have been studying innovations in payment technologies such as cryptocurrencies and blockchain, James Bullard writes.
On the Economy

Technological Innovations and Global Trade of Services
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Sun, Qiuhan (2020-12-29)
Technological innovations may give the U.S. a significant advantage in the global trade of services, which could potentially help the U.S. close its trade deficit.
On the Economy

Advances in AI will boost productivity, living standards over time
Wynne, Mark A.; Derr, Lillian (2025-06-24)
Artificial intelligence offers the potential to improve people’s living standards. Such advances can be approximated by changes in GDP per capita over time. Using that common measure, AI could enhance longstanding productivity gains or, alternatively, drastically alter the economy in relatively short order.
Dallas Fed Economics

Report
Financial Shocks, Productivity, and Prices
Lenzu, Simone; Rivers, David A.; Tielens, Joris; Hu, Shi (2026-04-01)
We study the interconnection between the productivity and pricing effects of financial shocks. Combining administrative records on firm-level output prices and quantities with quasi-experimental variation in credit supply, we show that a tightening of credit conditions has a persistent, yet delayed, negative effect on firms’ long-run physical productivity growth (TFPQ) but also induces firms to change their pricing policies. Commonly used revenue-based productivity measures (TFPR)—which conflate price and productivity—offer biased predictions regarding the consequences of financial ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1193

Journal Article
Texas high tech shakes off post-pandemic slump, readies new growth path
Kerr, Emily; Leigh, Robert; Torres, Luis (2024-05-03)
Texas is poised to lead in new advanced technologies, notably artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor manufacturing.
Southwest Economy

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