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Newsletter
Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve, and the Fed’s Dual Mandate
This Summer 2021 issue of Page One Economics describes how to think about stable prices, how inflation has evolved in recent years, how the relationship between inflation and employment is changing, and what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has recently stated about its strategy to meet its price stability goal.
Journal Article
Housing Services Inflation May Decline Only Gradually
The inflation rate for housing services remains about 2 percentage points above its 2019 level. Several factors are likely to slow its decline, including more than a decade of underbuilding prior to the pandemic, limited capacity to increase the nation’s housing stock, and the limited number of homes available for sale due to the steeper mortgage rates owners would face if they sold and purchased a different home.
Speech
A Fireside Chat on Current Economic Conditions
Vaccination rates have been better than expected in much of the U.S., and that’s led to a more rapid reopening of the economy than was forecast earlier this year. Forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) have been significantly upgraded since the start of this year, with the median forecast of Federal Open Market Committee members at 7% growth for 2021. That is unusually high for a U.S. recovery. Despite the positive signs, we still have quite a way to go before we reach full employment, given the most recent unemployment rate was 5.8%, substantially above the 4.5% FOMC participants ...