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Speech
Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality
Daly, Mary C. (2024-06-24)
Speech to Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, San Francisco, CA, June 24, 2024, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Speech
Bullard Talks with The Economist about Inflation, U.S. Economy Growth
Bullard, James B. (2022-05-25)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed the Fed’s approach to raising rates to help manage inflation and what he anticipates for U.S. economic growth, during a podcast for The Economist.
Speech

Working Paper
Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific
Auer, Raphael; Mehrotra, Aaron (2014-04-01)
Some observers argue that increased real integration has led to greater co-movement of prices internationally. We examine the evidence for cross-border price spillovers among economies participating in the pan-Asian cross-border production networks. Starting with country-level data, we find that both producer price and consumer price inflation rates move more closely together between those Asian economies that trade more with one another, ie that share a higher degree of trade intensity. Next, using a novel data set based on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), we examine the importance of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 172

Working Paper
Labor Market Tightness during WWI and the Postwar Recession of 1920-1921
Anderson, Haelim; Chang, Jin-Wook (2022-08-01)
The U.S. economy entered the 1920s with a robust job market and high inflation but fell into a recession following the Federal Reserve's discount rate hikes to tame inflation. Using a newly constructed data set, we study labor market dynamics during this period. We find that labor markets were tight when the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, but they became loose following the tightening as the recession deepened. The demand-supply imbalance in the labor market was driven by a sharp decline in the number of job openings. We also show that the recession had an uneven effect on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-049

Report
The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
Benigno, Gianluca; di Giovanni, Julian; Groen, Jan J. J.; Noble, Adam I. (2022-05-01)
We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index’s capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the local projection method. Our analysis shows that recent inflationary pressures are closely related to the behavior of the GSCPI, especially at the level of producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area.
Staff Reports , Paper 1017

Working Paper
Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolo, Giovanni; Song, Dongho (2023-03)
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with what is implied by the New Keynesian framework. We then discuss the reasons for which our results relying on a Trend-Cycle VAR differ from the findings of previous studies based on VAR analysis. We explain empirically and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-038

High inflation disproportionately hurts low-income households
Jayashankar, Aparna; Murphy, Anthony (2023-01-10)
Household survey results do not support Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman's recent suggestion that low-income families “have actually been hurt less by inflation than families with higher incomes.”
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
Remarks for the Panel Discussion “Why Did We Miscast Inflation?”
Collins, Susan M. (2023-02-24)
Inflation remains too high, and recent data – including several strong labor market indicators, as well as faster than expected retail sales and producer price inflation – all reinforce my view that we have more work to do, to bring inflation down to the 2 percent target. While optimistic there is a path to restoring price stability without a significant downturn, I am also well aware of the many risks and uncertainties, including the risk of a self-fulfilling loss of business and consumer confidence.
Speech

Speech
Bullard Speaks with Bloomberg about Inflation, Monetary Policy
Bullard, James B. (2021-04-12)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed his expectations for economic growth and inflation in 2021. He also discussed various aspects of U.S. monetary policy during an appearance on Bloomberg Radio and TV.
Speech

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