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Speech
U.S. Economic Outlook
Moskow, Michael H. (2007-02-16)
Remarks by Michael H. Moskow President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. University Club of Chicago - Learn at Lunch Lecture - 76 E. Monroe St., Chicago, IL. A speech delivered on February 16, 2007 in Chicago, Illinois.
Speech , Paper 7

Journal Article
Will High Underlying Inflation Persist?
Lusompa, Amaze; Sattiraju, Sai (2023-05-10)
Underlying inflation—the rate of inflation that prevails after temporary imbalances in the economy are resolved—can help policymakers gauge whether current high rates of inflation are likely to persist. Using survey-based inflation expectations, we show that if current inflation forecasts are realized, underlying inflation should decline toward 2 percent in 2024. However, if inflation continues to surprise to the upside, underlying inflation may remain elevated for some time.
Economic Bulletin

Speech
Remarks on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Musalem, Alberto G. (2025-03-03)
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the 41st annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. He gave a speech, “Remarks on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” and participated in a moderated Q&A.
Speech

Journal Article
Interview: Raghuram Rajan
Price, David A. (2024-07)
In August 2005, at the annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Raghuram Rajan created a stir. Rajan, then chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, argued in a presentation that a hidden danger of massive failures was lurking in the global financial system. Risks had been building up, he said, a result of the incentives facing private institutions in the environment of that era.
Econ Focus , Volume 24 , Issue 3Q , Pages 22-26

Speech
Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy, Policy, Inflation during Virtual Event
Bullard, James B. (2020-10-21)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed a variety of topics related to the U.S. economy during a virtual fireside chat at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines Leadership Summit.
Speech

Speech
Bullard Discusses Policy Rate Increases and His Views of U.S. Recession Predictions
Bullard, James B. (2022-07-15)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard talked about his preferences for raising the policy rate and his views of recession predictions in remarks during a European Economics and Financial Centre virtual discussion.Bullard said the U.S. economy continues to do very well and that the country has created about 2.7 million jobs in the first six months of the year, “an outstanding number even for a full year.”Although financial markets have been predicting a U.S. recession next year, Bullard said he is “a little skeptical that we’ll get to a recession.” The U.S. economy is slowing, but ...
Speech

Journal Article
Two Percent Inflation Over the Next Year: Should You Take the Over or the Under?
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2021-05-19)
According to the St. Louis Fed’s price pressures measure, there’s a 61 percent probability that inflation will average more than 2.5 percent over the next 12 months.
Economic Synopses , Issue 11 , Pages 1-3

Speech
Remarks at the Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance
Hirtle, Beverly (2022-11-17)
Introductory remarks at the Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance.
Speech

Report
Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers
Silva, Alvaro; Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem; Yildirim, Muhammed A.; di Giovanni, Julian (2023-11-01)
We estimate a multi-country, multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–23 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/EUR exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1080

Working Paper
Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics
Cuba-Borda, Pablo A.; Queraltó, Albert; Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo M.; Scaramucci, Mikaël (2025-03-04)
We explore how shocks to trade costs affect inflation dynamics in the global economy. We exploit bilateral trade flows of final and intermediate goods together with the structure of static trade models that deliver gravity equations to identify exogenous changes in trade costs between countries. We then use a local projections approach to assess the effects of trade cost shocks on consumer price (CPI) inflation. Higher trade costs of final goods lead to large but short-lived increases in inflation, while increases in trade costs of intermediate goods generate small but persistent increases in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2508

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